Lyft Inc (NASDAQ:LYFT) was downgraded by Wedbush analysts to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral,’ along with the release of the firm’s 2026 Consumer Internet Outlook.
The firm also reduced its 12-month price target to $16 from $20. Shares traded down 3.2% at about $19 on Friday afternoon.
“The near-term financial impact to established ridesharing platforms is limited, but over time, we expect autonomous vehicles (AVs) will disrupt the current status quo,” the analysts wrote.
They noted that Lyft, with its focus on the US ridesharing market and undiversified offering mix, is “most at risk to the impact of AV disruption.”
Wedbush also highlighted that AV operators may favor direct distribution, limiting opportunities for platforms like Lyft.
“We believe the market is underestimating the negative terminal value impact that AVs may have on Lyft's DCF value,” the analysts wrote, adding that expectations for core business gross bookings imply a CAGR of 12.6% between 2024 and 2027, below the company’s target of 15%.
The analysts noted potential industry catalysts for 2026, including Waymo’s planned AV operations in at least 20 new cities and Tesla’s robotaxi tests in Austin.
“As Waymo moves past its ‘training wheels’ phase of development, we expect more distribution via Waymo One and less via 3P integration,” Wedbush wrote. “2026 could prove to be a painful year for ridesharing, if true.”
They estimated that roughly 40% of Uber’s mobility bookings, and a similar proportion of Lyft’s, are most at risk from AV adoption.