While money markets are putting a 97% chance on the Bank of England cutting the base rate to 3.75% at today's meeting, economists and analysts will be watching closely for clues about the next potential cut in 2026.
The decision "should be uncontroversial" for the Bank's monetary policy committee, said Peel Hunt economist Kallum Pickering, due to the UK's stagnating growth, easing inflation and rise in unemployment.
"But the meeting will be one to watch closely," he said.
The first is that, with the UK "over the inflation hump" and with the budget out of the way, "it clears a path for the hawks to soften their warnings about sticky inflation into 2026".
While many see the MPC vote being split 5-4 or 6-3 in favour of a cut, Pickering saysd "the dovish surprise could be that arch-hawks like Catherine Mann or chief economist Huw Pill side with the doves and back a cut".
Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB, said "the market expects just over one rate cut in 2026, however, it all depends on the vote split".
Brooks will also be watching Mann, a "rate-setting pragmatist", to see if she changes to support a cut due to the deteriorating growth picture, the fall in CPI and the cooling jobs market.
Threadneedle Street will also provide an updated assessment of recent economic data and inflation trends, so Pickering said it will be interesting to see whether policymakers "judge that the softness since summer is a temporary blip which they do not need to lean against or evidence that monetary policy is at risk of being left too tight for too long?"
Minutes from this meeting will also be examined to see if they provide a sufficiently strong signal that the BoE will cut at the next meeting in February, Pickering added, with money markets odds-on for a cut in the first quarter but unsure whether it could come in the February or March meeting.
However, as inflation remains above target and growth data signal ongoing economic weakness, Daniela Hathorn at Capital.com said "any cut is likely to be paired with cautious messaging".
She predicted that the MPC will "emphasise data dependence and avoid committing to a rapid easing cycle".
For markets, Hathorn said a cut "should be supportive for the FTSE, while sterling may see two-way volatility as lower yields weigh on GBP, but improved macro confidence offers some offset".