ASX 200 futures are up 10 points (+0.11%) at 8:30 am AEDT, suggesting a slightly firmer start after the local market slipped again on Tuesday.
The S&P/ASX 200 fell 36.1 points (-0.42%) yesterday, with selling concentrated in energy and materials as commodity prices cooled and risk appetite remained patchy. Tech was also a drag, while a handful of industrial names and defensives managed to swim against the tide.
Overnight, Wall Street delivered another cautious session rather than a clean rebound. The Dow fell about 0.6%, the S&P 500 eased around 0.2% to a third straight loss, while the Nasdaq edged higher (+0.2%) as big tech stabilised.
Wall Street: Payrolls rebound, but the labour market still looks softer
Markets spent the session digesting the delayed US jobs data (released after the shutdown) and trying to work out what it means for 2026 rate cuts.
The headline was messy: November payrolls rose 64,000 after October showed a 105,000 decline, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% — the highest in four years. Bond traders leaned toward the “softening, not collapsing” interpretation, sending Treasuries higher and nudging yields lower on the day.
Sector performance did most of the storytelling. Energy and healthcare were weak, while parts of tech held up better.
Oil: Peace optimism and oversupply fears take centre stage
The clearest move offshore was in crude. WTI slid to around US$55 a barrel and Brent fell to about US$59, with prices hitting their lowest levels since early 2021 as investors priced in a world with ample supply — and the possibility of more production returning if Russia–Ukraine negotiations progress.
For Australian investors, that’s an immediate headwind for local energy names, and it’s one reason the market’s rebound attempts have struggled to gain traction this week.
ASX: Miners and energy lead the pullback, while pockets of strength remain
Locally, Tuesday’s decline was broad — 10 of 11 sectors finished lower — but it was still a fairly clear “resources-plus-energy” story.
- Energy was the second-worst-performing sector (down more than 2%), with Woodside and Santos among the notable laggards.
- Materials also fell, down 0.74%, with large iron ore names again under pressure, and Health Care fell 0.8%.
- Tech was hit harder still, with the All Tech index sliding about 1.6% and the IT sector down around 2.5%.
Meanwhile, Industrials outperformed (+1%), and bigger stocks including Qantas, Orica and Aurizon ended higher — a reminder the tape isn’t one-way, even on down days.
Today’s “macro-meets-domestic” focus is likely to be the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), with markets watching what Treasury says about the near-term budget position and how much of the commodity-price tailwind is being banked versus spent.
Commodities and currencies
Beyond oil, the commodity complex was softer but not disorderly:
- Gold was broadly steady around the US$4,300/oz area.
- Copper fell 0.75%.
- Iron ore was slightly higher in futures trade at US$106 a tonne, with some commentary pointing to restocking ahead of Lunar New Year.
In FX, the US dollar index has been drifting lower, and the Australian dollar has been edging down for several sessions, sitting around 66 US cents overnight.
What’s on the agenda today
A few key items to keep on the radar:
- Australia: MYEFO release is the headline domestic event.
- UK: CPI is due tonight (AEDT), a key input ahead of the Bank of England decision this week.
- US: Micron earnings are due, a read-through for semiconductor demand and AI-related spending.
After two down sessions that have unwound a chunk of last Friday’s rally, the local market doesn’t need fireworks — but it does need stability. If oil keeps sliding and China/Europe remain soft, the ASX will have to lean more heavily on banks, defensives and stock-specific catalysts to hold its ground.