Business Confidence across Australia’s Mining industry surged in the second half of 2025, according to a new poll by Roy Morgan, driven by growing expectations — and the eventual signing — of multi-billion dollar critical and rare earth mineral agreements between the Australian and US Governments in October.
In the six months to November 2025, Business Confidence in the Mining industry rose to 118.2, up 23.2pts (+24.5%) from a low of 95.0 in the six months to July 2025. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said the rebound marked a sharp turnaround from the uncertainty that dominated earlier in the year.
“Confidence in Australia’s mining industry has soared in recent months, increasing by 23.2pts (+24.5%) to 118.2 in the six months to November 2025, up from only 95.0 in the six months to July 2025,” Levine said.
Roy Morgan 6-Monthly Business Confidence – All Businesses vs. Mining Industry.
By contrast, overall Roy Morgan Business Confidence across all industries remained largely flat over the same period, edging down 1.7pts (-1.6%) to 101.0. Levine noted that broader confidence had softened even as sentiment within mining strengthened.
“Earlier in 2025, the uncertainty created by the Trump Administration’s tariff policies sent confidence in the mining industry – Australia’s largest export industry – plummeting,” she said. “Mining industry confidence bottomed mid-year in the six months to July 2025 at 101.0.”
Looking back 12 months, Business Confidence within the Mining industry was at a similar level of 117.0, before plunging during the first half of 2025. Over the longer term, mining confidence has averaged 104.6 over the past six years, more than 3pts above the overall Roy Morgan Business Confidence average since January 2020 (101.5).
According to Levine, sentiment began to recover as discussions emerged around a bilateral supply agreement covering critical and rare earth minerals.
“However, in mid-year discussions began about Australia and the United States signing an agreement related to the supply of critical and rare earth minerals,” she said. “China dominates the current market for critical minerals and rare earths but due to tensions with the United States Government, the Trump Administration began to look for other sources of supply.”
Those discussions culminated in a formal agreement signed in October.
“These discussions eventually led to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travelling to the United States and signing a multi-billion critical and rare earths minerals development deal with US President Donald Trump on October 20 with a vow for both governments to invest at least US$1 billion in the industry with a view of creating investments worth at least US$8.5 billion.”
Smaller miners drive confidence gains
While mining is often associated with large, established producers, the latest data shows the uplift in confidence has been driven primarily by smaller operators.
Business Confidence among mining businesses with annual revenue below $5 million climbed from 91.3 in the 6 months to June 2025 to 131.1 in the 6 months to November 2025 — an increase of 39.8pts (+43.5%).
Roy Morgan 6-Monthly Business Confidence – All Businesses vs. Mining Industry.
“A closer analysis of the mining industry shows smaller mining businesses – those with less than $5 million in annual revenue – have driven the increase in confidence,” Levine said. “Confidence among the smaller miners has soared by 39.8pts (+43.5%) to 131.1 in the six months to November 2025, up from only 91.3 in the six months to June 2025.”
In contrast, Business Confidence among larger mining businesses with annual revenue of $5 million or more declined over the same period, falling from 108.2 to 98.2.
“Confidence among larger miners has gone in the opposite direction – down by 10pts to 98.2 during the same period,” Levine said.
Economic outlook underpins sentiment
Improving expectations for the Australian economy were the dominant drivers of higher confidence across the Mining industry.
In the six months to November 2025, 53.1% of mining businesses said their business was ‘better off’ financially than a year earlier, while 21.5% said it was ‘worse off’, delivering a net positive change of +17.6%. Looking ahead, 60.4% expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared with 20% expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Confidence in the broader economy also strengthened sharply. Expectations of ‘good times’ over the next year rose to 54.6%, while views on ‘bad times’ fell to 45.4%, a net improvement of +34.9%. Although long-term sentiment remains negative overall, expectations for the next five years improved by a net +38.4%, the largest gain across all indicators.
“The two questions driving this increase relate to the Australian economy’s performance,” Levine said. “Confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year has improved by a net +34.9% since mid-2025, and confidence about the economy over the next five years has improved by a net +38.4%. Combined, these two questions alone account for almost 15pts of the increase of 23.2pts – over 60% of the increase.”
Despite the strong rebound, Levine cautioned that mining confidence has historically been volatile.
“However, a look back at the history of Business Confidence in the mining industry does show wild swings in both directions, part of a ‘boom bust’ cycle that many associate with the industry,” she said.
Looking ahead, she said confidence will depend on the conversion of commitments into investment.
“Looking forward, confidence in the industry will continue to rely on a strong pipeline of investment to service export markets worldwide,” Levine said. “The new deal between Australia and the United States is meant to lead to billions of dollars of investment in the industry over the next few months, but until this funding is secured and invested there will remain a degree of uncertainty about just how much investment will in the end be made in these new ventures.”
The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for the six months to November 2025 are based on 7,492 detailed interviews with Australian businesses across all States and Territories.