OpenAI has quickly reasserted its lead in the AI race following concerns it was falling behind Google, analysts at Jefferies say, pointing to the release of GPT-5.2 and recent enterprise-focused developments.
They also see performance gains, hiring moves, and scaling trends supporting OpenAI’s momentum heading into 2026.
“Don’t count OpenAI out,” the analysts wrote, adding that they are bullish on OpenAI’s GPT-5.2, which delivered a bigger-than-expected leap over GPT-5.1, easing concerns it was falling behind Google.”
The firm noted that GPT-5.2 now tops key benchmarks against Gemini 3 Pro and Claude Opus 4.5. “Well, that was quick. OpenAI is back on top of the benchmarks,” the analysts wrote, calling the gains stronger than expected.
“While these are ultimately just benchmarks, early indications suggest that GPT-5.2 is significantly better than expectations and should help rationalize all this recent short-term skepticism.”
Jefferies said the upgrade, combined with the hiring of Slack’s former CEO as chief revenue officer, supports OpenAI’s enterprise push in 2026.
They highlighted what they described as a “remarkable uptick” on the GDPval benchmark, nearly doubling GPT-5’s performance. “This is not a marginal improvement: these advances, combined with strong leadership hires, position OpenAI for a formidable enterprise expansion in the coming year,” Jefferies wrote.
Microsoft, they noted, remains a key beneficiary through its ownership, revenue-sharing, and cloud partnership.
The analysts also pointed to momentum in coding, citing improvements on SWE-Bench-Pro and LMArena WebDev.
More broadly, they reiterated their view that “models are scaling multiplicatively, not capping out,” and that new data continues to validate aggressive investment in larger models. According to Jefferies, these performance gains can drive near-immediate enterprise adoption.
“Model gains can be felt quicker than any prior tech shift, helping drive accelerated adoption, ROI, & upside,” the analysts wrote, adding that rapid improvements support a more optimistic outlook for OpenAI and its partners.