Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) has been awarded a ‘Hold’ rating and $30 price target, implying limited upside, from Jefferies analysts in their initial coverage of the drugmaker.
Moderna shares are down almost 28% in the year to date, trading just shy of $30 on Friday morning.
Jefferies highlighted that while Covid-19 and RSV vaccine sales could grow in 2026, visibility on longer-term performance remains limited.
“Upside to MRNA stock relies on visibility to management’s 2028 cash breakeven guidance. We forecast breakeven in 2030,” the analysts wrote, noting that annualized cash burn currently exceeds $3 billion.
Jefferies projects that Covid vaccine revenues could floor at $1 billion annually by 2030, down from an estimated $1.8 billion in 2025, with additional revenue from RSV, flu, and Covid/flu combo vaccines potentially adding $2 billion to $3 billion by 2030.
However, the firm cautioned that meaningful contribution from newer products, including oncology and rare disease vaccines, is unlikely until 2027 to 2028.
The analysts also noted the absence of near-term catalysts. “Given catalysts are more in 2027, and absent visibility to more cost saves, we initiate at Hold, $30 price target,” they wrote.
They added that upside depends on both consistent revenue growth and faster-than-expected expense reductions, with risks including Covid/RSV seasonality, regulatory policy, and pipeline execution.
For 2026, Jefferies expects Covid and RSV sales to grow, particularly outside the US, but said more will be needed to meet management guidance. Overall, 2026 is expected to remain primarily a Covid/RSV story, with broader pipeline contributions emerging in later years.