As the likes of Uber, Tesla and Waymo ramp up wave upon wave of new autonomous vehicles across US cities, the real disruption won’t be limited to transport but could also allow more Americans to chug more beer and cocktails, analysts at Barclays predict.
The crux of the argument is that car use in the US is higher, and so if people are using robotaxis instead of driving, social drinking becomes safer, more convenient and more frequent.
"We believe the market has not considered this impact on alcohol consumption, in particular for the US," the analysts said.
A rise of robotaxis and ride-hailing could spark a $42 billion surge in US alcohol consumption over the next decade, the bank's drinks analysts reckon, providing a value top-up for global drinks giants like Budweiser and Stella brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD), Guinness and Jonny Walker maker Diageo PLC (LSE:DGE), Pernod Ricard and Davide Campari.
"We believe governments will welcome robotaxis due to their perceived enhanced safety when compared to a human driver, and the reduced drink-driving risk," they said.
This, they expect, will "amplify the behavioural shift of increased alcohol consumption seen in traditional ride-hailing methods through providing more flexible transportation options, and more affordable travel, making it easier for people to socialise and consume alcohol without worrying about driving home".
The robotaxi side
The US robotaxi market is accelerating much faster than people think, Barclays calculates, with an anticipated 10-15% annual increase in ride-hailing usage, turbocharged by aggressively expanding autonomous vehicle fleets from Waymo and Tesla in sizes of fleet and geographic coverage.
Following a year of testing, 2026 is set to see Waymo's fleet move into the thousands. Having launched in Austin, Texas in June 2025, and expanding into the San Francisco Bay Area in California in July, the company is expected to operate in at least eight US metro areas by the end of the year.
While Waymo's model is based on purpose-built robotaxis, Tesla’s strategy involves converting existing privately owned vehicles to operate as robotaxis during idle hours, potentially scaling the fleet to millions of vehicles.
By 2035, robotaxis could be as affordable as public transport, Barclays tech analysts suggest, at just $0.20-$0.30 per mile, which would make spontaneous nights out easier and more frequent.
The bank upgraded Pernod to 'overweight', lifting its target price to €102, citing undervaluation and potential upside from transportation-driven behavioural shifts.
Diageo and AB Inbev were all reiterated at 'overweight', with share price targets both lifted 7% to 2,650p and to €94 respectively.