Cavendish has reiterated its 13p target price on Allergy Therapeutics PLC (AIM:AGY, OTC:AGYTF) after the company posted full-year results that were broadly in line with guidance and reflected a period of transition in its largest market.
Revenue for the year to June 2025 came in at £55 million, effectively flat on last year but up about 2% at constant exchange rates.
Cavendish says the numbers show how quickly Germany is moving from non-registered to fully registered allergy immunotherapy products.
That shift has altered the product mix faster than Allergy Therapeutics previously expected, though the broker notes that demand for the group’s registered treatments remains firm.
A notable strengthening of the balance sheet has occurred since year-end. Shareholder lenders exercised warrants, with the proceeds used to fully repay the £55 million shareholder loan facility.
A new £50 million uncommitted loan facility is now in place, which Cavendish believes gives the company enough flexibility to navigate several “value inflexion points”. The most important of these is the marketing authorisation application decision for Grass MATA MPL in Germany, which the broker expects in early 2026.
Cavendish cautions that uncertainty around the precise timing of the Grass MATA MPL launch, combined with planned commercial and marketing investment to support uptake, has led it to cut forecasts for the next financial year.
It now expects FY26 revenue of £68 million, down from a previous estimate of £77 million, and an adjusted EBITDA loss before R&D of £6.3 million, compared with an earlier forecast of a £9.6 million profit.
Even so, the broker remains supportive of the long-term outlook. The company’s financial position has improved, late stage programmes are progressing and a positive regulatory decision in Germany would be a major catalyst.