Australian shares are poised for a strong rebound on Thursday, with futures up about 1% at 8:30 am AEDT, after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated rate cut and Wall Street pushed back towards record territory. The local market heads into the session with a firmer Aussie dollar, stronger metals prices and investors still weighing this week’s hawkish message from the RBA.
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.08% on Wednesday to 8,579.4, extending its run of small declines. The headline move masked a clearer rotation under the surface: materials climbed more than 1% as silver and copper names rallied, while financials, real estate, energy and industrials all lost ground. Tech bore the brunt of the selling, with the All Tech index down about 1.5%, even as small caps and the Emerging Companies index managed gains. The Australian dollar rose to around US$0.668.
Wall Street rallies after divided Fed cut
Overnight, US equities finished firmly higher after the Fed trimmed the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75%. The Dow rose just over 1%, the S&P 500 gained about 0.7% and the Nasdaq added roughly 0.3%, with the equal-weight S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 both closing at record highs — a sign the rally broadened beyond the usual megacap leaders.
The decision itself was no surprise, but the split on the committee underscored how uncertain the policy path remains. Three officials dissented, two preferring to hold and one arguing for a larger move. Even so, the Fed’s latest projections still point to inflation gradually easing back towards 2% over coming years, with growth in 2026 revised higher as consumer spending and AI-related business investment continue to support activity.
Bond markets took the outcome as broadly dovish. US 10-year yields eased to around 4.14%, shorter-dated yields also moved lower and the US dollar weakened, providing a tailwind for risk assets into the close. European markets, which shut before the decision, were mostly flat to slightly lower, while moves across Asia were modest, with the Nikkei fractionally weaker and Hong Kong a touch higher.
Bonds and currency: RBA still the hawkish outlier
Local bond markets continued to adjust to Tuesday’s RBA statement. Australian government yields pushed higher again on Wednesday, with the 10-year climbing to around 4.81% after a second straight 5-basis-point move. Pricing now implies two 25-basis-point hikes next year.
The Aussie dollar has found support from the weaker greenback and the stronger commodity complex. The currency has now risen for two sessions in a row and is trading near US$0.668, the highest level since mid-September, helped by firm copper, resilient iron ore and revived interest in precious metals.
Commodities: Copper stays hot, gold steady, oil bounces
A softer US dollar and the prospect of easier financial conditions helped major commodities push higher overnight. Copper added around 1.5% and remains close to record levels, with traders still focused on tight supply and ongoing trade tensions into 2026. Gold gained nearly 0.5%, holding comfortably above US$4,200 an ounce.
Oil prices also recovered, with WTI back near US$59 a barrel after earlier declines linked to supply headlines out of Iraq. That mix — elevated copper, solid gold and broadly steady bulk commodities — keeps the backdrop constructive for ASX miners, even if individual sub-sectors continue to move in different directions day-to-day.
ASX today: Deal activity, labour data and AGM signals
Local corporate news is picking up despite the late-December lull. Flight Centre has pushed into the UK cruise market with a deal to acquire Iglu, nudging FY26 profit guidance higher. Meanwhile, St Barbara has reshaped ownership of its Simberi operation in Papua New Guinea, with a state-backed entity taking a minority interest and China’s Lingbao Gold moving to acquire a larger stake.
Attention now shifts to the November labour-force report at 11:30 am AEDT — the first meaningful gauge of hiring conditions since Tuesday’s hawkish RBA message. Any sign of labour tightness will reinforce expectations that rates stay restrictive through 2026.
Myer and Westpac hold AGMs later in the day, while two new mining listings — Exulant and Moonlight — round out the session, adding to a busy month for junior explorers.