GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) shares added 16.5% on Wednesday at about $730 after the company raised its long-term financial outlook and projected stronger revenue, margins and cash generation through 2028 at its investor update event in New York.
The company now expects $52 billion in revenue and a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, up from its prior forecast of $45 billion and a 14% margin.
The company’s management team pointed to a larger backlog, stronger pricing and service-driven margins as the primary drivers of the upgraded guidance.
“Electric power will be critical to unlocking economic growth in the decades ahead and we are well-positioned with our large installed base and platform of advanced solutions to serve this growing, long-cycle market,” GE Vernona CEO Scott Strazik said in a statement.
“We will deliver value in the short term, but I’m most excited about our long-term potential as we focus on value-accretive capital allocation to drive growth and innovation while delivering shareholder returns.”
The update drew a strongly positive reaction from UBS analysts, who said the new targets exceeded already elevated expectations.
The analysts wrote that they view the 2028 financial targets as “a credible floor,” noting that the company’s consolidated EBITDA outlook of $10 billion sits above their own $8.7 billion estimate and the $9.5 billion consensus.
The analysts also highlighted that the 20% margin target compares favorably with buy-side expectations and implies annual EBITDA growth approaching 50% from 2025 to 2028.
UBS pointed to the Power segment as a key source of upside. GE Vernova is forecasting a 22% Power segment margin in 2028, versus a prior target of 16%. The analysts estimate this implies roughly $7 billion in EBITDA, above expectations of $5.5 billion to $6 billion. They added that this “is a positive starting point, and implies potential for margins to exceed 25%,” supported by strong demand and pricing.
While the company’s new Power forecast assumes a little more than 30% incremental margins from 2025 to 2028, the analysts wrote that “we think it can be much higher given pricing already in backlog.”
“The bottom line is this is a very strong update from GEV,” the analysts wrote, reiterating their ‘Buy’ rating and $760 price target.
They also said earnings power “can approach $30 per share over the next few years (before 2030) vs $7 expected in 2025,” which would leave the stock appearing cheaper than headline multiples suggest.
In its update, GE Vernova said it has signed 18 gigawatts of gas turbine contracts so far this quarter and expects to reach 80 GW of combined slot reservations and backlog by year-end. Total backlog is projected to rise from $135 billion to about $200 billion by 2028, including a doubling of Electrification backlog to $60 billion.
The company also raised its cash-flow expectations, projecting at least $22 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2028, up from a prior estimate of $14 billion.
GE Vernova also reaffirmed its 2025 revenue and margin guidance, increased its free-cash-flow outlook to $3.5 billion to $4 billion, and issued 2026 targets including $41 billion to $42 billion in revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11% to 13%.
Further, GE Vernova’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share payable in early 2026 and expanded its share repurchase authorization to $10 billion from $6 billion.