Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) is likely to face continued valuation pressure as softer shipment expectations and ongoing earnings downgrades weigh on investor sentiment, Jefferies said on Wednesday.
“We trim our 2026 estimates to better reflect RACE’s sustained rate of new model ramp ups next year, which will likely mean reduced shipments in the quarters ahead and greater margin dilution from growing D&A,” analysts wrote.
The bank said ongoing consensus downgrades — including expectations for 8.2% 2026 ex-FX revenue growth and EPS of €10.05 — were likely to keep pressure on the stock.
Jefferies now sees 2026 EPS at €9.32, about 7% below consensus, and expects earnings to reach €10.32 in 2027 and €11.17 in 2028. For 2025, it nudged EPS down to €8.99 from a previous €9.03.
The broker forecast modest declines in Cars and Spare Parts shipments over the next three years, projecting volumes of -0.4% in 2026, +0.4% in 2027 and +1.1% in 2028, compared with consensus expectations of growth in each period. It expects average selling prices to rise between 4% and 6% annually through 2028, remaining below market forecasts in 2026 and 2027.
Jefferies also outlined the expected cadence of Ferrari’s upcoming F80 hypercar, with nine units slated for delivery in late 2025 and a ramp-up to 180 vehicles in 2026, followed by 300 in 2027 and 330 in 2028.
Analysts said Ferrari has recently acknowledged that faster model launches may not be supportive to near-term volumes, potentially pushing more of next year’s financial performance into the second half. They added that Ferrari’s focus on shoring up softer resale values and more contained challenges in the US would remain important.
Ferrari’s US-listed shares were down 3.9% on Wednesday afternoon.