Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) could unlock more than $5 billion in quarterly revenue as early as 2026 if the US government allows the company to export its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, UBS said on Tuesday, after US officials signaled they may approve shipments to certain customers.
The US Commerce Department is considering allowing exports of Nvidia’s Hopper-generation H200 processors to approved Chinese buyers, although shipments of the newer Blackwell generation remain off the table for now, according to Reuters reporting.
UBS said the potential move “just even[s] the playing field,” noting that AMD has already secured licenses to ship its MI308 accelerators into China.
UBS analysts estimate the domestic China AI compute market at about $50 billion in 2025, with local suppliers likely able to cover only about 20% of demand. That leaves roughly 80% to global vendors such as Nvidia and AMD. The bank said Nvidia could resume shipments of $5 billion to $10 billion per quarter if approvals are granted, adding upside to its $500 billion Blackwell-and-Rubin data centre order backlog.
The decision also marks a broader shift in the global AI investment landscape, according to deVere Group CEO Nigel Green.
“The move changes how capital markets should think about future AI leadership, competitive dynamics, and long-term value creation across sectors,” Green said. “Expanded access to the Chinese market could generate meaningful upside for semiconductor companies and support parts of the global tech sector.”
But as more firms gain access to cutting-edge compute, Green said, competitive advantages could compress. “When more players can access similar tools, excess returns shrink. Markets then reward execution rather than exclusivity…Investors need to prepare for a market where AI leadership is contested, not assumed.”
Nvidia shares were down 0.5% on Tuesday afternoon.