4:15pm: Russell 2000 hits fresh high
Stocks finished mixed on Tuesday as investors digested early data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.
The Dow Jones slipped 0.4% to 47,560, weighed down by JPMorgan, which dropped more than 4% after a warning that costs could rise next year amid credit card competition and increased AI spending.
The S&P 500 was relatively flat, down just 0.1% at 6,841, while the Nasdaq nudged higher by 0.1% to 23,576.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 small-cap index hit a fresh record, climbing 0.2% to 2,526. Investors are rotating into smaller stocks as hopes grow that the Fed may ease policy soon. Small caps tend to benefit when borrowing costs fall, and cheaper financing could boost earnings growth for domestically focused and cyclical companies, prompting a shift away from megacap tech names.
A mixed batch of economic data added nuance to the market mood. Job openings ticked up unexpectedly, even as layoffs jumped, highlighting uneven hiring trends across industries. Weekly payroll indicators, however, showed signs of recovery, suggesting private-sector hiring has regained some momentum. Small business sentiment also improved slightly, driven by expectations for stronger revenue and potential hiring, though worries remain over tight credit conditions and capital spending plans.
In corporate news, SpaceX is reportedly moving forward with an IPO that could raise well over $30 billion, potentially valuing the Elon Musk-led company at around $1.5 trillion—putting it in the league of historic listings like Saudi Aramco.
Looking ahead, investors will keep an eye on earnings reports due after the bell from Gamestop, Casey’s General Stores, and Dave & Buster’s, as well as updates from the Fed that could shape markets into the year-end.
3:35pm: Proactive news headlines
- Highland Critical Minerals Corp (CSE:HLND) completed a Plan of Arrangement, distributing a portion of its Highland Red Lake holdings to shareholders as shares and warrants.
- Millennial Potash Corp (TSX-V:MLP, OTCQB:MLPNF) has begun its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment for the Banio Potash Project in Gabon, hiring a consortium led by Artelia.
- Nextech3D.AI (CSE:NTAR, OTCQX:NEXCF) signed an agreement to acquire AI-based event engagement platform Krafty Labs and has entered a due diligence and integration period.
- Charbone Hydrogen Corporation (TSX-V:CH, OTCQB:CHHYF) appointed industry veteran Jean Watelle to lead production as it prepares first deliveries from its Sorel-Tracy ultra-high-purity hydrogen project.
2:55pm: Market movers
- Silver prices hit a record $60 per ounce as expectations of rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and tight supply fueled a powerful rally, sending shares of miners and developers like Aftermath Silver Ltd (TSX-V:AAG, OTCQX:AAGFF), Pinnacle Silver & Gold Corp (TSX-V:PINN, OTCQB:PSGCF) and Silver Range Resources Ltd (TSX-V:SNG, OTC:SLRRF) higher.
- Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM, XETRA:XONA) raised its long-term earnings and cash flow outlook on the back of growth in key assets and additional cost savings.
- Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB) reported lower first-quarter earnings due to inflation, tariffs, and changing consumer behavior, though results slightly beat expectations.
- Millennial Potash Corp (TSX-V:MLP, OTCQB:MLPNF) has begun its Environmental and Social Impact Assessment for the Banio Potash Project in Gabon.
- Nextech3D.AI (CSE:NTAR, OTCQX:NEXCF) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Krafty Labs, expanding into AI-driven virtual and in-person event engagement.
- CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS) lifted its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to at least $400 billion on stronger performance across its health businesses.
- Designer Brands said profit topped expectations in the third quarter, sending its shares sharply higher despite weaker revenue.
2:05pm: Nvidia could see billions in upside
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) could unlock more than $5 billion in quarterly revenue as early as 2026 if the US government allows the company to export its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China, UBS said on Tuesday, after US officials signaled they may approve shipments to certain customers.
UBS said the potential move “just even[s] the playing field,” noting that AMD has already secured licenses to ship its MI308 accelerators into China.
Analysts estimate the domestic China AI compute market at about $50 billion in 2025, with local suppliers likely able to cover only about 20% of demand. That leaves roughly 80% to global vendors such as Nvidia and AMD.
The bank said Nvidia could resume shipments of $5 billion to $10 billion per quarter if approvals are granted, adding upside to its $500 billion Blackwell-and-Rubin data centre order backlog.
12:55pm: Silver hits new record
Silver prices surged to a record $60 per ounce on Tuesday, propelled by expectations of US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and persistent supply constraints, marking a dramatic rally in the metals market.
Silver futures rose above $60.50, extending their year-to-date gain to 107%, while gold has climbed more than 60% this year, trading just over $100 below its October all-time high.
Silver-focused exchange-traded funds surged on Tuesday, with abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF up 3.7% and iShares Silver Trust up 3.6%.
Mining stocks followed the rally: Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX:PAA, NASDAQ:PAAS) advanced 10%, Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) rose 7.1%, Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) climbed 4.5%, Silvercorp Metals Inc (TSX:SVM, AMEX:SVM) gained 4.7%, and Endeavour Silver Corp (TSX:EDR, NYSE:EXK) added 3.4%.
Smaller developers also saw strong gains, with Aftermath Silver Ltd (TSX-V:AAG, OTCQX:AAGFF) up 14.1%, Silver Range Resources Ltd (TSX-V:SNG, OTC:SLRRF) rising 8.7%, and Pinnacle Silver & Gold Corp (TSX-V:PINN, OTCQB:PSGCF) increasing 4.6%.
11:50am: Job openings jump
The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed openings climbed to 7.67 million in October from 7.66 million in September, beating expectations of a decline.
At the same time, hiring, quits, and layoffs painted a weaker picture. The hires rate fell to 3.2% in October, matching the lowest levels since 2020, while the quits rate dropped to 1.8%, also the lowest since 2020. Layoffs edged up to 1.2%, tying recent highs.
“The jump in job openings is largely seasonal and does not signal a broader labor market strength,” Comerica chief economist Bill Adams said. “Other measures suggest the job market has softened further in the fourth quarter, with private hiring failing to offset federal layoffs.”
11:10am: Economic activity expanding
Wells Fargo sees US economic activity continuing to expand, supported by resilient small business sentiment, even as modest price pressures persist.
“Overall, the increase in small business sentiment is consistent with our view that economic activity is still expanding, while price pressures are gradually moving through supply chains,” Wells Fargo analysts said.
They added that the labor market has “neither improved nor deteriorated meaningfully in recent months,” noting that the survey may contain extra noise due to a smaller-than-usual sample, skewed toward very small service and retail businesses.
10:40am: Small business optimism hits three-month high
US small business sentiment showed a modest boost in November, with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) optimism index climbing to 99, its highest level in three months.
The uptick was driven by rising sales expectations, with a net 15% of business owners now anticipating higher sales in the months ahead. Hiring plans also picked up, as 19% of owners said they intend to add jobs.
Price pressures remain elevated: 34% of small businesses reported raising prices, marking the largest share since March 2023.
The numbers suggest that while small businesses are feeling cautiously optimistic, inflation and labor costs continue to shape their outlook.
9.55am: Nasdaq opens lower, Dow enjoys small bounce
Wall Street got off to a mixed start to Tuesday trading, with the Dow Jones opening 0.35% higher, the S&P 500 up 0.1% but the Nasdaq slipping 0.2%.
Almost all the Mag 7 stocks opened in the red, Apple and Tesla being the exception.
Nvidia and Microsoft are down 0.4%, Meta is down 1.8% after announcing a new AI model.
Leading the Dow higher are Johnson & Johnson, up 1.6%, and Procter & Gamble, up 1.3%.
8am: Stocks expected to make small rebound
US stock futures were indicating small gains ahead of the opening bell in New York on Tuesday, after the previous session saw Wall Street end the winning run of the past week.
Dow Jones futures were up 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were closer to flat.
The prior day, the Dow fell 0.5% to 47,739 points, the S&P dropped 0.4% to 6,846 and the Nasdaq slid 0.1% to 23,545.
The largest listed company, Nvidia, should provide some support on Tuesday, with premarket gains of around 1% after President Trump agreed to lift export restrictions on chip sales to China.
Exports of Nvidia’s H200 processor will be allowed to “approved” buyers in China under conditions overseen by the US Department of Commerce.
Paramount shares were also rising premarket, up another 2% following a 9% leap the day before after a hostile bid was made for Warner Bros Discovery.
Markets will also be paying some attention to macroeconomic data, including the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which rose to 99.0 in November from 98.2 in October, above the consensus forecast of 98.3.
JOLTs job openings are due later.
The Federal Reserve meeting, which starts today and finishes tomorrow, is dominating the thoughts of investors and analysts.
"Stocks are wavering, bond yields are falling this morning, even though bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026 have been scaled back slightly in recent days," says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB.
"However, there could be more volatility in bond markets as we near the end of the year, as global central banks turn towards a more hawkish stance ahead of 2026."
She says the process of markets digesting fewer global rate cuts next year "may cause stock markets to stall, especially as US markets approach record highs".
Brooks says the US stock market rally has broadened beyond the tech sector, with yesterday seeing the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperform the market cap-weighted S&P 500.
"The recent increase in bond yields is also a sign that the market is positioning for a rebound in US growth, which could help cyclical sectors continue to perform well into year end.
"Ultimately, if this trend continues, then US stocks could catch up with European indices, which have outperformed so far this year."
Yesterday saw the S&P 500 overtake the FTSE 100's year-to-date gain at one point, before slipping back by the close.