Wedbush Securities has lowered its 12-month price target for The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) to $40 from $50, citing growing structural disadvantages in an increasingly AI-driven advertising landscape.
Analysts at Wedbush said The Trade Desk should continue to see topline growth, supported by the ongoing migration of linear advertisers to connected TV (CTV) and digital platforms, deeper integration across media channels, and the company’s content-agnostic approach.
However, the report highlighted intensifying competition from demand-side platforms (DSPs) that control identity, purchase data, and full-funnel ecosystems. Platforms such as Amazon, Meta, Google, Walmart, Kroger, and Target are increasingly able to offer advertisers a closed-loop, AI-optimized buying experience that The Trade Desk, which operates on the open internet, cannot match.
“The Trade Desk is structurally disadvantaged because it operates on the open internet, where identity is fragmented, measurement is probabilistic, and conversion data is limited,” analysts wrote. They added that as AI-driven ad buying shifts toward platforms with deterministic commerce signals, The Trade Desk risks losing market share despite efforts to build its own content-agnostic CTV platform.
Amazon, in particular, is cited as a key competitor, leveraging its ecommerce data and expanding partnerships with major CTV players, including Disney, Roku, and Netflix, to strengthen its DSP offering.
The brokerage also noted that The Trade Desk’s position as a price-taking intermediary in this evolving market could pressure its take rate, data access, and long-term margins. The lowered price target reflects a 13x EV-to-EBITDA multiple on Wedbush’s 2027 EBITDA estimate of $1.46 billion, a decline from the previous 16x multiple.
Wedbush concluded that while The Trade Desk remains well-positioned with a large client base and strong digital advertising capabilities, the structural shift toward closed, AI-optimized ecosystems justifies a more cautious valuation.