4:12pm: Stocks slip
US stocks finished Monday’s session lower as investors await the outcome of the Fed’s rate-setting meeting later this week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 88% probability of a cut, up from expectations of 67% a month ago.
The Dow Jones fell 0.5% to 47,739 points, the S&P 500 was down 0.4% at 6,846 points, while the Nasdaq was down 0.1% at 23,545 points.
3:50pm: Proactive news headlines
- Fineqia International Inc (CSE:FNQ) said gobal digital asset exchange-traded products saw assets under management drop 17.1% to $176.4 billion in November, ending a four-month streak above $200 billion.
- American Resources Corp (NASDAQ:AREC) announced a partnership with SAGINT to implement blockchain-based tokenization for improved traceability in the global critical mineral supply chain.
- NEXE Innovations Inc (TSX-V:NEXE, OTC:NEXNF) received its largest repeat order yet of 70,000 BPI-certified compostable coffee pods from ecoBeans Coffee amid rising nationwide demand.
- Uranium American Resources Inc. (OTC:UARI) advanced technical work at its Stateline uranium-vanadium project, digitizing historic drilling data and identifying multiple mineralized trends.
- Arizona Gold & Silver Inc (TSX-V:AZS, OTCQB:AZASF) said new assays from the Philadelphia project revealed a wider gold-silver mineralized interval, including 6.28 metres grading 7.02 grams per tonne gold.
- Digi Power X Inc (NASDAQ:DGXX, TSX-V:DGX) appointed Silicon Valley engineer Jagan Jeyapaul as its new chief technology officer, bringing extensive experience in cloud platforms, data centers, and machine learning systems.
- Alvopetro Energy Ltd (TSX-V:ALV, OTC:ALVOF) November sales remained steady at 2,851 boepd, supported by strong natural gas demand in Brazil exceeding contracted volumes.
- G Mining Ventures Corp (TSX:GMIN, OTCQX:GMINF) secured a 20-year mining license for its Oko West gold project in Guyana, clearing the final step toward full construction and commercial production.
3:20pm: FOMC preview
Comerica Economics expects the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.50%–3.75% at its final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on Wednesday.
“Several FOMC members will likely dissent again,” commented Bill Adams, Comerica’s chief economist.
“The Fed will likely be tight-lipped about the outlook for rates in 2026 given conflicting views among FOMC members.”
The Fed may also signal steps to support short-term funding markets after recent signs of tight liquidity. Comerica forecasts that job openings likely fell in October, the federal deficit narrowed in November, and the US trade deficit likely shrank in September as import demand cooled.
2:25pm: Market movers
- IMAX Corp (NYSE:IMAX) received a Wedbush price target hike to $46 after its 2025 Investor Day, boosting shares more than 8% on Monday.
- CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) shares dropped nearly 7% after the company announced a $2 billion convertible notes offering that investors viewed as potentially dilutive.
- Wave Life Sciences (NASDAQ:WVE) soared over 126% after reporting Phase 1 data showing its experimental obesity drug significantly reduced body fat and increased lean mass.
- Confluent shares surged after International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) agreed to acquire the data-streaming platform in an $11 billion all-cash deal, with Confluent set to operate as a standalone business under IBM.
- Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) made a $30-per-share all-cash bid to acquire Warner Bros Discovery Inc (NASDAQ:WBD, XETRA:J5A), directly challenging an existing offer from Netflix.
1:25pm: Red afternoon
Markets were broadly lower in Monday afternoon trading.
Just after 1pm ET, the Dow Jones was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.3% lower.
Markets are bracing for a near-certain Fed rate cut this week. Traders now see an 88% chance of a cut at Wednesday’s two-day policy meeting, up from 67% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch.
12:25pm: Bank of America backs IBM acquisition
Bank of America analysts view IBM’s planned $11 billion all-cash acquisition of Confluent as aligned with its push into artificial intelligence and real-time data solutions. Confluent, a data streaming platform built on Apache Kafka, “can enhance IBM's AI offering and help modernize clients who currently rely on legacy middleware tools,” the analysts wrote.
The analysts said the deal is dilutive to earnings per share in the near term, estimating a potential $0.50 EPS hit in 2026 without synergies, but noted that cost and revenue synergies could reduce this to $0.25–$0.30, becoming negligible in 2027. The acquisition is expected to contribute around $600 million in revenue and sit within IBM’s Data software segment, potentially adding 10% incremental growth in 2026 and 2027.
11:35am: IBM bids big for Confluent
International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) said on Monday it has agreed to acquire Confluent Inc, a data streaming platform used by clients including Anthropic, Amazon Web Services and Google, in an all-cash deal valued at $11 billion.
Confluent, which focuses on connecting, processing, and managing reusable data for AI deployments, will continue operating as a standalone business under IBM.
The move marks IBM’s latest push to expand its artificial intelligence capabilities through software acquisitions. In recent years, the company has acquired Apptio for $4.6 billion in 2023 and cloud software firm HashiCorp for $6.4 billion last year.
11:15am: Paramount's rival bid for WBD
Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) has made an all-cash offer to acquire Warner Bros Discovery Inc (NASDAQ:WBD, XETRA:J5A) in a move directly challenging a previously announced deal with Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX, XETRA:NFC).
Paramount is offering $30 per share in cash for all outstanding shares of Warner Bros. Discovery, valuing the company at approximately $108.4 billion, or around $82 billion to $83 billion including assumed debt.
The offer covers the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery, including its global networks such as CNN and Discovery, unlike Netflix’s agreement, which is limited to the film, television, studio, and streaming operations.
Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery jumped 5.7% on the news to about $27.60 per share and Paramount Skydance was up 5.2%. Netflix fell 4.5% on the news.
10:40am: Week ahead
Wall Street heads into a busy penultimate trading week of the year, with eyes firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2025 and hopes for a year-end Santa Claus rally.
Investors are also digesting the fallout from blockbuster deals, including Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX, XETRA:NFC)'s planned acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery Inc (NASDAQ:WBD, XETRA:J5A) and a potential record-setting leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ:EA, XETRA:ERT).
Traders widely expect the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, marking the third straight reduction this year. December rate-cut odds have fluctuated in recent weeks, but “recent economic data has reinforced the chances,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. The central bank will get one last major labor market update in the form of the delayed October JOLTS report on Tuesday.
The week’s economic calendar is packed. Besides the Fed meeting, investors will monitor US job openings, employment cost data, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Elsewhere, earnings from Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL, XETRA:ORC) and Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO, XETRA:1YD) later this week will help to set the tone on AI enthusiasm heading into the new year.
9.55am: Paramount barges into Netflix deal, but markets not set alight
Warner Bros Discovery shares have jumped another 7% higher after Paramount gatecrashed the $72 billion deal agreed with Netflix, with a massive $108 billion rival bid.
Despite these animal spirits, it's a mixed start on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones is down 0.1%, the S&P 500 is just below flat, while the Nasdaq is up almost 0.2%.
Netflix is a drag, down 2.9%.
Among other tech giants, Alphabet and Tesla are down over 1%, while biggest fallers on the Dow are 3M, Home Depot, Procter & Gamble and UnitedHealth.
8.14am: More gains expected for Nasdaq, S&P and Dow
US stocks are set to extend their winning run on Monday, with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting later in the week.
Equity futures were cautiously positive in the early hours, with the Nasdaq pointing to a 0.3% gain, S&P 500 futures up 0.1% and Dow Jones futures just above flat.
Last week closed with all three inching higher to extend their recent winning streaks to four days, with the S&P within striking distance of all-time highs after a second consecutive week of gains. The small-cap Russell 2000 broke ranks, falling 0.4%.
Cryptocurrencies were also healthier, with bitcoin up 3% at just over $91,600 as it continues to recover from multi-month lows in mid-November.
The US dollar showed signs of steadying, with the DXY dollar index at 98.94, following the selloff over the past fortnight.
The Fed meeting is the central focus of the week, with an interest cut anticipated but a unanimous decision not expected.
A probability of almost 90% is seen for a 25-basis point cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, with analysts stating that much of the post-meeting interest will be on the FOMC’s quarterly summary of economic projections (SEP), including the 'dot plot' of where committee members predict the Fed Funds rate will move next year and beyond.
"This should help give investors some idea over just how dovish, or otherwise, the US central bank is likely to be going forward," said analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation, noting that that Fed Chair Jerome Powell leaving his post in May muddies the waters slightly.
Speculation over Powell's likely replacement is coalescing around dovish Kevin Hassett, currently head of the National Economic Council, with President Trump felt likely to make an announcement before the year-end.
The VIX index is becalmed, notes Morrison, "suggests that investors are remarkably relaxed as things stand. US stock indices are back within easy reach of all-time highs, and it appears that the consensus expectation is for a continuation of the rally into year-end.
"Some may interpret this as sheer complacency on the part of investors."
At the end of the third quarter earnings season, corporations reporting this week include Toll Brothers today, followed later in the week by Oracle, Broadcom and meme stock GameStop.
Shares in Warner Bros Discovery were down 0.9% in premarket trading after President Trump threw some fresh uncertainty over Netflix's $72 billion takeover, warning that the combined group’s enlarged market share “could be a problem”.
His off-the-cuff remarks over the weekend were enough to rattle both prediction markets and early trading.
While Netflix is reportedly preparing a robust defence, insisting the market is far broader than subscription video, politics adds further intrigue as Warner Bros spurned Paramount Skydance, a studio with longstanding Trump connections, to pursue Netflix, a choice that may colour the debate in Washington.