Citi is leaning into a more upbeat view of the UK’s volume housebuilders heading into 2026, arguing that the sector could be set for a strong spring selling season as mortgage rates ease and the planning environment gradually improves.
The bank thinks this combination could help drive a 15-20% uplift in sector valuations as worries about next year’s trading fade and confidence in a longer-term earnings recovery returns.
Citi’s analysts continue to back Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN), Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.), Bellway PLC (LSE:BWY) and Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW), while remaining 'neutral' on Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) and Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG).
They flag Persimmon as their preferred name thanks to its long-standing execution, especially in planning and its exposure to more affordable homes, a segment that tends to see quicker demand recovery when borrowing costs fall.
Bellway also earns praise for consistent delivery. At the other end of the pack, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Redrow are described as 2025’s “laggards”, but Citi sees ample room for a catch-up into mid-2026 as both groups rebuild their outlet pipelines and strengthen their order books.
Berkeley, by contrast, is judged to be facing a tougher spell. The bank cites affordability pressures, stamp duty and tax changes, and signs of softer demand in London’s higher-end market.
Any improvement here is likely to depend on replanning to adjust schemes to today’s demand profile.