Potential bidders are starting to line up for Anglo American PLC's (LSE:AAL) metallurgical coal arm as the group prepares to relaunch the sale of its five Queensland mines, according to a note from Panmure Liberum.
The mines, including Grosvenor, Moranbah North, Aquila, Dawson and Jellinbah, produce around 15 million tonnes a year and were previously the subject of a $3.8 billion agreement with Peabody Energy, which the US group walked away from in August after citing a “material adverse change” linked to a March incident at Moranbah North.
Panmure Liberum highlights a handful of likely suitors, with Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) at the top of the list.
Even after spending $7 billion on Teck’s Elk Valley Resources coal operations last year, analysts say Glencore has approval from its board to remain an active consolidator in coal and could consider Anglo’s mines if the price is right.
A second group of potential buyers comes from Japan’s steel industry, where supply security remains a priority.
Recent deals, such as Nippon Steel and JFE picking up a combined 30% stake in Whitehaven’s Blackwater operation, indicate continued appetite for long-term access to high-quality coking coal.
Panmure Liberum lists Nippon Steel, JFE, Mitsubishi and Mitsui as possible bidders.
Stanmore Resources, which transformed itself in 2022 through the purchase of BHP’s BMC assets, is another candidate. Analysts note that the mines now for sale sit in the same region as Stanmore’s existing operations.
Coronado and Yancoal also feature as potential industry buyers, given their existing Australian coal footprints. And given the major miners’ reluctance to expand coal output, private equity could also play a role, with funds having backed recent deals such as Golden Energy and Resources’ acquisition of South32’s Illawarra assets.
The renewed sales process follows several turbulent years for Anglo’s coal division. The company reached a deal to sell the assets to Peabody in November 2024, but that collapsed when Peabody walked away, which also sank a planned $455 million sale of the Dawson mine to an Indonesian buyer, BUMA.
Anglo has since begun arbitration to challenge Peabody’s termination. Operations have stabilised, with Moranbah North restarting mining and processing in November.
The Panmure Liberum note reminds readers that the sector has changed shape rapidly. A series of disposals by BHP, South32, Teck and Anglo have reshuffled the list of the world’s largest exporters of metallurgical coal.
Charts in the report show Glencore (boosted by Elk Valley) emerging as the top producer, while Whitehaven, Stanmore and Coronado have each climbed the league table through acquisitions.
For investors keeping an eye on price signals, the broker reiterates its view that metallurgical coal should hold in a $120–$210 a tonne range into 2026.
That reflects softer demand from major steelmaking regions but also capped Chinese output and a collapse in investment in new export supply, a backdrop that could help support the valuation Anglo hopes to achieve in the revived auction.