China has punched through the $1 trillion mark for its annual trade surplus for the first time, a milestone that underlines how reliant the country has become on foreign demand as domestic growth sputters.
Official data for November showed exports rising 5.9% from a year earlier, far stronger than expected and a sharp turnaround from October’s dip.
The surge came even as shipments to the United States collapsed almost 29%, a reminder that the trade truce struck by Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in October has yet to reverse years of tension.
The headline strength hides a more complicated picture. China’s export engine is being propped up by rerouted trade and lower prices, helped along by deflation that has pushed down its real exchange rate.
Sales to Europe and other markets more than offset US weakness, but this shifting pattern has already reignited political pressure: French president Emmanuel Macron warned over the weekend that Europe may impose tariffs unless China narrows its widening surplus.
At home, the numbers tell a more subdued story. Imports crept up just 1.9%, well below forecasts, reinforcing signs of soft consumer demand and an economy still weighed down by a deep property slump.
Economists caution that even with the temporary tariff truce, the external backdrop is likely to weaken next year. China’s leaders, targeting 5% growth, meet this week to map out economic plans... and will do so knowing that exports remain both a lifeline and a vulnerability.