Australian shares are poised to open slightly higher on Friday, with futures up 0.13% at 9:45 am AEDT, as global markets drifted through a cautious session and the Aussie dollar continued to climb. Investors come into the day digesting another record copper price, softer moves on Wall Street and local macro signals that have strengthened expectations of further monetary tightening in 2026.
The ASX 200 added 0.27% on Thursday to 8,618.4, lifted by heavyweight miners and banks after copper’s latest leg higher spurred strong buying across the resources complex. Large caps carried most of the advance amid a weaker performance among smaller names — the Small Ordinaries fell 1%, while the Emerging Companies index dropped 1.1%.
Materials, financials and energy set the pace. BHP and Rio Tinto rose sharply alongside Sandfire Resources, while CSL and ANZ added weight at the top end of the market. Real estate and consumer-oriented sectors lagged, reflecting the market’s increasingly selective mood as yields push higher and discretionary spending indicators stay uneven. The Australian dollar firmed to around US66.1 cents, its strongest level in more than a month.
Wall Street drifts as labour signals blur
US equities struggled for direction overnight, with the S&P 500 finishing up around 0.1% after trading in a narrow band and the Dow finishing marginally lower. The Nasdaq added 0.2% as investors continued to rotate in and out of the megacap complex — enthusiasm around AI-linked names held up reasonably well, but questions about stretched valuations kept sentiment contained.
Fresh jobless claims data complicated the read on the US economy ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Filings fell to their lowest level in more than three years, contradicting earlier weakness in the ADP private payrolls report and leaving traders unsure how much of the shift reflects holiday distortions. Rate-cut expectations for December remain dominant, though Fed-funds pricing softened slightly.
Treasuries sold off across the belly of the curve, lifting yields and nudging the probability of additional easing next year a little lower. European markets fared better — the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.4% — while Japan’s Nikkei jumped more than 2% as tech stocks and a softer yen supported buying.
Oil edged higher after talks between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin yielded no progress, keeping geopolitical risk elevated. Copper slipped modestly from record levels, and gold was broadly flat.
Bonds reset as RBA expectations harden
Australian government bonds followed the global move, with the 10-year yield climbing another 6 basis points. The shift in rates markets is becoming harder to ignore: traders are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point RBA hike in 2026 as household spending picks up and wage pressures prove sticky. Local data showed a 1.3% rise in household consumption in October — the strongest monthly increase since early 2024.
Trade data also came in steady, with the headline surplus widening slightly despite volatility in gold shipments.
ASX today: Earnings quiet, corporate news picks up
In local energy and resources news, the AFR reported that LNG producers moved to head off the threat of tighter export controls, offering concessions aimed at securing more domestic supply — a shift that could influence contract dynamics heading into 2026.
In tech, OpenAI is reportedly courting Australian startups and large corporates through a new local hub and partnerships with major venture funds. NextDC added to that momentum, unveiling a collaboration with OpenAI to plan a hyperscale AI campus in Sydney.
Among the majors, Rio Tinto used its Capital Markets Day to reaffirm iron-ore shipment guidance and upgrade its copper outlook, echoing the sector’s strong performance this week.
In light early small cap newsflow, Critical Resources Ltd (ASX:CRR) reported that maiden drilling at its Amoco gold–antimony project in NSW has confirmed a sizeable orogenic system, with early petrography pointing to Hillgrove-style mineralisation.
Elsewhere, Blackstone’s interest in Steadfast resurfaced in broker circles, while uranium sentiment improved after offshore ETF gains. On the broker front, upgrades for Imdex, Tabcorp and Wisetech provided additional stock-specific catalysts, and Premier Investments’ AGM offers a read on discretionary demand heading into Christmas.
With no major economic releases scheduled locally today, trading is likely to take its cues from offshore leads, sector-specific moves and the shifting rates narrative.