Citi’s latest read on BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) can be summed up in two words: spot strength.
Iron ore is holding at $108/t, well above Citi’s $97/t FY26 assumption, while copper sits at $5.4/lb versus Citi’s $5.1/lb FY26 estimate.
When the market refuses to cooperate with your downside case, earnings inevitably get a lift. Citi has upgraded FY26 EBITDA by 1.6%, with a further 1% tweak higher in FY27.
The more interesting kicker is copper. Citi flags that BHP’s production has genuine upside thanks to Escondida’s grades, which clocked in at 0.94% in the September 2025 quarter.
Full-year guidance assumes 0.85%, which now looks conservative. Citi sees potential for BHP to hit the upper end of its 1,150–1,250 kt copper range.
Price targets stay put at A$47 for BHP.AX and £23 for BHP.L. The formal rating remains Neutral, but Citi quietly opens a positive short-term view, signalling that momentum and market pricing are finally lining up in BHP’s favour.
For a miner that trades on macro mood swings, the current setup is about as friendly as it gets.