Shares in West Africa-focused gold developer Predictive Discovery Ltd (ASX:PDI, OTC:PDIYF) jumped 26% to $0.785 in early trading after major shareholder Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX:PRU, TSX:PRU, OTC:PMNXF) launched a surprise $1.6 billion all-scrip takeover bid, immediately throwing the company’s existing merger agreement with Canadian suitor Robex Resources into uncertainty.
Perseus, which already owns 17.8% of Predictive, is offering 0.136 Perseus shares for each Predictive share under a scheme of arrangement. Based on Perseus’ last closing price of $5.72 on December 2, 2025, the proposal implies a valuation of $0.778 per Predictive share and an equity value of approximately $2.1 billion on a fully diluted basis.
The offer represents a 24.5% premium to Predictive’s last closing price on December 2, and a 34.8% premium to the company’s 10-day VWAP.
Board deems Perseus approach a “Superior Proposal”
After receiving advice from its legal and financial advisers, Predictive’s board has unanimously determined that the Perseus offer constitutes a “Superior Proposal” under the terms of its October 5, 2025, arrangement agreement with Robex Resources.
The decision triggers Robex’s five-business-day matching right, giving the Canadian miner until 11:59 pm EST on December 10, 2025, (or 12.59pm AWST on December 11) to equal or exceed Perseus’ terms.
Predictive noted there is no guarantee the new bid will ultimately replace the Robex transaction or that a binding scheme implementation deed with Perseus will eventuate.
$37 million loan facility sweetens the terms
As part of the proposal, Perseus has committed to provide Predictive with an unsecured $37 million loan facility. The funding is earmarked to cover:
- any termination fee payable to Robex should Predictive walk away from the existing merger deal;
- general working capital; and
- pre-development activities at the company’s flagship Bankan Gold Project in Guinea.
Perseus’ proposal is not subject to financing or due diligence, and the scheme terms are expected to follow standard conditions, including approval by shareholders, court approvals and confirmation from an independent expert that the deal is in shareholders’ best interests.
Market reaction: PDI surges, PRU dips, Robex tumbles
The market responded sharply this morning to the takeover twist:
- Predictive Discovery (PDI): up 26% to $0.785
- Perseus Mining (PRU): down 3% to $5.55
- Robex Resources (RXR) CDIs: down 21.5% to $4.20
Robex was among the most heavily sold mid-cap names of the session, with investors signalling doubts over its ability or willingness to match Perseus’ offer.
Predictive urges investors to take no action
Predictive advised shareholders that they are not required to take any action while the matching period is underway and further negotiations play out.