RBC Capital Markets has reshuffled its deck of housebuilder convictions, declaring Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN), TTaylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) and Crest Nicholson PLC (LSE:CRST) the winners in waiting while sending Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) and Barratt Redrow PLC (LSE:BTRW) to the naughty step.
The broker has decided 2026 belongs to self-help and strategic land, a polite way of saying good luck out there.
Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are both bumped up to 'outperform', with price targets of 1,750p and 150p respectively.
Crest keeps its 'outperform' badge, although with a trimmed target.
Berkeley, by contrast, is demoted to 'underperform', collateral damage of the Budget’s mansion tax theatrics.
Barratt Redrow is pushed down to 'sector perform' amid the ongoing teething issues of its Redrow acquisition. Bellway, Gleeson and Vistry remain where the broker left them.
This outbreak of analyst decisiveness sits atop an industry still barely moving. Planning approvals are running at their lowest level in two decades, a feat even by British administrative standards.
RBC’s charts show a parade of downward slopes: site numbers, reservation rates, pricing momentum, all declining with the enthusiasm of a wet Bank Holiday queue.
Housebuilders, the report notes with admirable culinary commitment, are still chewing through limp lettuce landbanks, the result of build costs rising just as post mini Budget house prices stalled. Profitability, accordingly, is on a long march back to normality.
There are, allegedly, greenshoots. Appeals data is improving, housing starts have ticked up and planning applications may have troughed.
If history repeats, the revised National Planning Policy Framework might even begin working by late 2026, roughly 18 months after politicians declared it fixed.
Until then, the sector remains trapped between government exhortation to build more homes and local authorities’ apparent preference to do anything else.
The Budget offered no rescue. Between the mansion tax, higher property income levies and anaemic infrastructure progress, the environment looks calibrated to irritate landlords, slow transaction volumes and generally ensure housebuilders have something fresh to complain about at every results season.
RBC’s verdict is simple: land strategy will decide who climbs out of the mire first and who remains stuck rearranging the lettuce.