Farhan Badami, market analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
AU GDP
Just as September’s GDP data came in just above forecasts, October’s print is also expected to reflect a strengthening - but not booming - economy when it arrives on Wednesday.
That’s thanks to capital expenditure lifting at the fastest pace in almost four years, largely motivated by an increase in data centres. That indicates business is building and capital is flowing into the private sector.
It’s important to understand that this doesn’t translate to significant growth, but simply bodes well for the year ahead. Productivity is still a concern, and inflation remains sticky – both these factors will continue to hang over any optimistic data readings in the meantime.
Still, it seems public spending is starting to dial back, following an extended period where heightened levels of public service hiring had tilted the unemployment rate scales, and so a steady uptick in GDP at a time when the private sector is starting to be more represented in these key metrics represents a slow drift towards the right path.
Salesforce/CrowdStrike earnings
This week, the last remaining big names in tech will release their earnings reports for the season – most notably among them are Salesforce and CrowdStrike.
Salesforce heads into its December 3rd update with sentiment fragile after a difficult year for software, with the company’s shares down about 30% year to date. Last quarter’s results delivered a small beat on both lines, reporting US$10.2 billion in revenue for Q2, but guidance disappointed despite a larger buyback.
For this quarter, AI remains the swing factor. Investors want proof that new AI features lift attach rates and margins rather than cannibalise seat‑based pricing. In September, Salesforce cut roughly 4,000 support roles and shifted more interactions to AI agents, which should help margins, but raises questions about its service quality and customer satisfaction.
Softer guidance or signs of slowing demand would likely keep pressure on the stock into year-end, especially with investors comparing software names with AI leaders elsewhere in tech.
CrowdStrike’s conditions are more optimistic - it heads into Q3 earnings with momentum after Q2 revenue rose 21% to US$1.17 billion. With the stock up roughly 46% year to date, guidance will likely drive the share price reaction more than the printed numbers.
Demand for AI-enhanced security appears resilient, but pressure from investors for large-scale developments is mounting, and drawn-out promises in these earnings could prompt a pullback as ‘AI bubble’ concerns persist.
Will there be a 'Santa Rally' this year?
There is no doubt that it’s been a great year for markets. On Wall Street, the S&P500 is up 16%, while the Nasdaq has rallied 20% and in Asia, the Hang Seng has delivered a huge 29%. These returns are higher than historical averages, showing how strong 2025 has been.
As the year draws to a close, investor psychology is now taking centre stage. Hardly anyone wants to sell and potentially miss out on a year-end rally, often dubbed the ‘Santa Rally’. This could make the market more emotional and less rational. A "buy the dip" mentality is likely to prevail, with investors viewing pullbacks as an opportunity rather than a warning sign, a trend we’ve seen throughout this year.
Despite the recent noise and cautionary voices, there are solid reasons for bullish optimism. Fundamentals, seasonality, and the macroeconomic climate currently suggest a continuation of the rally or at least stable prices until the end of the year. Inflation, although still volatile, appears to be largely under control, and US tariff policy has not triggered a new surge in inflation. This means that interest rates can be cut further next year.
The year-end rally would be nice, and it may very well come to fruition. But if it doesn’t, remember that investing is a long game. Those who stay level-headed and focused on fundamentals will be the real winners when the dust settles and the next year begins.