Australian shares are poised for a quiet start to the week after a strong but choppy finish to November. Futures point to a flat open for the S&P/ASX 200 this morning, tracking modest gains on Wall Street and firm moves in gold and copper, while attention at home shifts to this week’s GDP figures, alongside updates on prices, spending and corporate profits.
ASX recap: Soft Friday, solid week
The ASX 200 slipped 0.04% on Friday to 8,614.1, but that headline masked a more constructive tone beneath the surface. Defensive names and growth sectors did the heavy lifting, while the major banks eased back after a strong run.
Consumer staples led the way with a 1.3% gain, joined by utilities (+1.0%), tech (+0.9%) and materials (+0.4%). At the other end of the market, financials fell 0.7%, with the big four banks generally weaker, and real estate and utilities also lagged.
Smaller stocks outperformed into month-end. The Small Ordinaries rose 0.8% and the Emerging Companies index jumped more than 2%, underlining the risk appetite creeping back into parts of the market. The Aussie dollar edged down to around US$0.653 by the local close but finished the week meaningfully stronger as investors reassessed the domestic rates outlook.
Friday’s flat finish still left the ASX 200 up nearly 2.5% for the week after four consecutive weekly declines, helped by a rebound in resources and ongoing support for interest rate-sensitive sectors.
Wall Street: Thin volumes, firm finish
US equities inched higher in a shortened post-Thanksgiving session, with trading volumes light but risk appetite intact. The S&P 500 added about 0.5%, the Dow Jones climbed 0.6% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%, leaving all three near recent highs.
Gains were broad rather than spectacular. Energy stocks advanced as oil prices steadied, while large-cap consumer and tech names also provided support.
Amazon and Walmart firmed on one of the biggest shopping days of the year, reflecting solid early read-throughs from the Black Friday period, and Intel rallied strongly after upbeat commentary on its chip roadmap. Health care lagged, weighed by weakness in heavyweight Eli Lilly.
For the week, major US indices posted gains of 3–5%, helped by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
European markets also edged higher on Friday, with key benchmarks in Germany, France and the UK up around 0.3% as softer US dollar moves and optimism around rate cuts supported sentiment.
Commodities and currencies
Commodities strengthened into month-end, led by precious metals. Gold rose around 1.4% to trade near US$4,220 an ounce, supported by a softer US dollar and expectations of December Fed easing. Copper gained more than 2% on tightening supply signals, while silver also pushed higher.
Oil was comparatively steady. Brent and WTI slipped about 0.2% on Friday but held weekly gains ahead of this week’s OPEC+ meeting. Iron ore eased slightly yet remains around US$105 a tonne.
Bond markets were quiet. US Treasury yields nudged higher on Friday but ended the week lower, with the 10-year near 4%. Local yields drifted higher last week after the upside inflation surprise, and the Aussie dollar held around US$0.655 heading into today’s open.
This week: Heavy local data flow
A full run of domestic indicators will shape sentiment this week, including home prices, job ads, building approvals, corporate profits and inventories. Wednesday’s Q3 GDP read is the main focus, with consensus pointing to a firmer quarter after a softer winter period.
Offshore, US manufacturing prints land through midweek, while Saturday’s PCE inflation figures will guide expectations for December Fed policy.
Early-week company news is light, but a few developments could nudge individual names, including a report that Capricorn Metals approached Genesis Minerals about a possible merger.
Corporate activity includes Metcash results, several dividend payments and the market debut of Epiminder, with additional listings arriving later in the week.
With futures signalling a flat start, the market looks set to open cautiously as investors weigh strong gains from last week against a heavy macro calendar. GDP, inflation indicators and corporate profit data will provide the clearest read yet on whether the domestic recovery is firming or simply stabilising into year-end.