This Black Friday, consumers are prioritizing everyday essentials over luxury items, reflecting growing concerns about job security and the rising cost of living.
More than six in 10 shoppers recently said they planned to buy necessities instead of fancier items during the holiday sales season, consultancy Deloitte reported, up from 58% last year.
Consumers’ financial jitters are compounded by rising layoffs, ongoing inflation, and shifts in trade policy, analysts say. Shoppers surveyed expect to spend an average of $622 during the Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) period from November 27 to December 1, down 4% from last year. Participation, however, remains strong, with 82% planning to shop, and 64% intending to use financing options to stretch their budgets.
While the holiday sales weekend has evolved into a hybrid of in-store and online shopping, 72% of Gen Z consumers plan to shop in stores on Black Friday, compared with 49% of all shoppers.
“Black Friday marks more than just one day of promotions — it’s the symbolic beginning of the most lucrative period for global retailers, and especially for e-commerce platforms,” said Hani Abuagla, senior market analyst at XTB MENA. “While not every brand will see the same sales surge…online spending continues to grow, and the e-commerce business keeps thriving, no matter how consumer behavior shifts. That’s why this time of year often gives stocks of companies like Amazon, Shopify, Zalando, or Allegro a noticeable boost of momentum.”
In 2025, Black Friday falls on November 29, marking the peak week of pre-holiday shopping. Historically, retail and e-commerce stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 in the weeks surrounding Black Friday, a trend closely watched by traders. During the 2024 season, global online sales rose about 5% year-over-year to over $74 billion, while US online sales surged more than 10% to $10.8 billion, according to Kepler Analytics.
Analysts at Bain & Company expect the Black Friday–Cyber Monday weekend in the US will account for roughly 9% of total holiday retail spending, with sales projected to rise about 11% from 2024. Online sales during the week could reach roughly $12 billion in the US, while global e-commerce spending may hit around $80 billion, up from $74.4 billion last year.
For investors, Black Friday offers a real-time gauge of consumer confidence. “Although YoY sales could have dipped slightly compared to 2024, this is expected to be the first time that US consumers splurge more than $1 trillion this holiday season, which could be enough to cheer stocks, especially the consumer discretionary sector,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
E-commerce platforms are seen as the biggest beneficiaries, with Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Shopify Inc (TSX:SH., NYSE:SHOP) poised to capitalize on massive scale and global reach. Other retail names to watch include Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE, XETRA:NKE), Levi Strauss & Co (NYSE:LEVI), and L’Oreal SA, analysts say, thanks to strong digital sales channels and omnichannel strategies.
As shoppers hunt for bargains this Black Friday, analysts and investors will be closely monitoring both online and in-store activity for signals on broader consumer spending and the health of retail stocks heading into the final weeks of 2025.