Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL, XETRA:APC) is set to take back the top spot in the global smartphone market for the first time since 2011, driven by strong demand for its iPhone 17 lineup, according to projections from Counterpoint Research.
Apple is expected to achieve a 19.4% share of worldwide smartphone shipments in 2025, edging past Samsung, which is forecast to hold an 18.7% share.
Apple’s year-on-year shipments are projected to grow 10% in 2025, compared with 4.6% growth for Samsung. Counterpoint's analysts attributed the surge to a combination of consumer upgrade cycles and continued momentum from the iPhone 17 series.
"Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase," Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said in a statement.
"Additionally, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years."
Apple has also benefited from lower-than-expected tariff impacts globally and easing tensions in the US-China trade relationship, which have supported its supply chain and overall demand in emerging markets, Counterpoint’s report noted.
Looking ahead, Apple plans to expand its lineup with the iPhone 17e in the first half of 2026 and expects to launch its first foldable iPhone by the end of the year. A flip-style iPhone is anticipated by late 2027. According to the report, these moves, along with adjustments to Pro and Base models and broader price-tier coverage, are expected to help Apple maintain its lead in both shipments and revenue.
Samsung, while still expected to see solid growth of around 5% in 2025, faces challenges in retaining its number-one position amid rising competition from Apple and increasing pressure from Chinese OEMs in mid- to lower-tier segments, per the report. Samsung’s strategic upgrades to the A-series and continued strength in emerging markets are expected to support growth, but not enough to surpass Apple.
Overall, global smartphone shipments are projected to rise 3.3% in 2025, attributed by Counterpoint to Apple’s strong performance.
The firm expects Apple to maintain the top spot through 2029, supported by robust demand, an expanding product lineup, and continued upgrades within its large installed base.