UK stockbroker Panmure Liberum has nudged down its medium-term expectations for Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) after the UK government confirmed a freeze on regulated rail fares from March.
While the broker describes the impact as modest, it has cut group revenue forecasts by around 2% from FY27 onward and reduced its price target to 480p from 490p.
Panmure Liberum, nevertheless, retained a 'Buy' rating for the rail ticketing app firm.
Analysts Sean Kealy and Johnathan Barrett, in a note, pointed out that regulated fares account for roughly 45% of the market, and unregulated ticket prices typically move in tandem, implying a small drag on near-term NTS and EBITDA.
Panmure now expects UK net ticket sales growth of around 1% in FY27, with a slight pullback in marketing spend helping offset the softer topline.
Despite the downgrade, the team emphasises that a real-terms fare cut should stimulate passenger volumes, meaning its revised numbers may prove conservative.
Moreover, with the underlying demand described as resilient, and the company continuing to buy back shares aggressively, the broker says it still sees more than 100% upside to fair value over the medium term.