US stocks are limping into the Thanksgiving week, but investors might finally catch a break.
After a bruising November and the worst weekly performance since early October, Wall Street is getting a much-needed breather. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and traders are hoping a quieter, holiday-shortened stretch might help steady some nerves after last week’s whiplash.
The setup heading into Monday is at least a little more encouraging. Stock futures are pointing higher, bitcoin has calmed down, and risk sentiment is looking steadier after a chaotic few days that saw the biggest intraday swing in US stocks since April.
“The question now is, will this Thanksgiving-shortened week give some respite to investors?” asks Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “Or are the good times for stocks behind us?”
A packed calendar despite the turkey
Even with one fewer trading day, it’s a busy week. Earnings season is down to its final laps, but a long list of big names is still waiting in the wings.
On Monday: Agilent Technologies, Zoom and Symbotic are on deck.
Tuesday brings the heavyweights: Alibaba, Dell, Best Buy, HP, Autodesk, Analog Devices, Workday, Zscaler, Dick’s Sporting Goods, JM Smucker and NIO.
Wednesday wraps things up with Deere and Li Auto.
The economic calendar is just as full. Investors get delayed September retail sales and producer price data on Tuesday, followed by durable goods on Wednesday. The Fed’s Beige Book, consumer confidence and a large slate of Treasury auctions add to the mix.
Fed chatter gives stocks a lift
One major reason markets are perking up: comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said he’d support a rate cut as soon as December. That was enough to jolt rate-cut bets sharply higher. Markets are now pricing a roughly 65% chance of a December cut, up from 40% late last week.
If the Fed really is preparing a final-hour pivot, the combination of strong earnings and cooling inflation could set the stage for a recovery rally.
The consumer stays front and center
The week’s most important question is a familiar one: How strong is the US consumer?
Tuesday’s retail sales report is expected to show a 0.4% rise for September, helped in part by a rush of electric-vehicle buying ahead of the end of federal subsidies. Core retail sales are expected to rise 0.3%.
Even if the numbers come in a touch softer than August, overall spending looks solid. Consumer outlays are forecast to rise 3% in the third quarter, up from 2.5% in Q2.
And then there’s Black Friday. This year, shoppers are expected to spend more than $1 trillion for the first time during the holiday season, a milestone that could offer a lift to the recently battered consumer-discretionary sector.
A thin but telling week
With US markets closed Thursday and running shortened hours Friday, trading will likely quiet down midweek. But what happens before then — retail data, earnings from tech and retail heavyweights, Fed expectations and the state of crypto sentiment — could set the tone heading into December and the final stretch of 2025.
After last week’s turmoil, a calm Thanksgiving week would be more than welcome. Whether markets deliver it remains to be seen.