ASX 200 futures are up 92 points (+1.09%) as of 8:30 am AEDT, pointing to a firmer open after a tough run. The ASX 200 fell 218 points (-2.52%) last week to 8,416.5, its fourth straight weekly loss and a 5.42% decline so far in November, putting it on track for its weakest month since September 2022.
The index is up just 3.15% in 2025 (6.38% including dividends), well behind major global benchmarks. Sector-wise, the headline-grabbing ASX 200 IT sector has slumped more than 16% in November, but it is the heavyweight Financials that have done most of the index-level damage, down 7.53% month-to-date with one week of trading to go.
At the stock level, notable laggards last week included DroneShield (-26.39%), Catapult Group (-15.70%), Lovisa (-14.74%) and Technology One (-14.01%), while Webjet (+15.19%), NuFarm (+12.79%), Charter Hall Group (+12.72%) and CQG Partners (+12.41%) led the gains.
Australia is shifting from a quarterly to a fully monthly CPI as its main inflation gauge from this Wednesday, bringing it into line with other G20 economies and improving cross-country comparisons.
Looking at the Q3 figures: headline CPI rose 1.3% QoQ and 3.2% YoY (from 2.1%), while trimmed mean increased 1.0% QoQ and 3.0% YoY (from 2.7%), its first annual uptick since December 2022.
Market pricing points to around 3.6% annual growth for the new monthly headline CPI, 2.9% for the trimmed mean, and about 2 basis points of easing expected at the RBA’s December meeting, with roughly 14 basis points of cuts priced by May 2026. Locally, Gentrack Group will be in focus with an earnings release, in what is likely to be another volatile week for the index.
Rebound on Wall St
US equities rebounded on Friday as renewed hopes for a December rate cut followed dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams.
Despite the late-week bounce, the Nasdaq still logged a third straight weekly loss, down 3.07%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.95% and the Dow Jones dropped 902 points (-1.91%). Williams said he still sees scope to lower rates “in the near term,” prompting market-implied odds of a 25bp cut in December to jump from around 30% to 70%. That aligns with earlier views that prior pricing for December was too low given the recent uptick in the unemployment rate, though a cut remains far from assured, with a number of regional Fed presidents openly pushing back against near-term easing.
The policy picture has been further clouded by news that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the October CPI; elements of that missing report will instead be folded into the November release on December 18—after the FOMC meeting—and could also feed through to the PCE index, where roughly 70% of the basket is derived from CPI components.
In equities, Alphabet rose 3.3% to US$163.30 on optimism around its Gemini 3 model and planned data centre investment. Intel gained 2.62% to US$34.50 and Qualcomm added 2.32% to US$163.30. By contrast, the market continued to reassess stretched AI valuations: Oracle slid 5.66% to US$198.76, Broadcom lost 1.91% to US$340.20, Microsoft eased 1.32% to US$472 and Nvidia dipped 0.97% to US$178.88, breaking below US$180 for the first time in almost two months.
Looking ahead, the US data calendar is relatively light heading into month-end, with the Thanksgiving holiday and BLS catch-up efforts limiting releases. Highlights include US consumer confidence, the Chicago Fed national activity index and Dallas Fed manufacturing index, alongside earnings from Zoom, Dell, HP and Deere & Co.
Mixed markets in Europe
European sharemarkets finished mixed on Friday as volatility in US technology stocks again spilled across the Atlantic. The regional tech sector fell 2.3%, with Dutch semiconductor group BE Semiconductor down 5.6%, while chip-equipment makers ASMI and ASML declined 4.6% and 6.3% respectively.
- The broader FTSEurofirst 300 index slipped 0.3% on the day to be 2.2% lower for the week, reflecting the pressure on growth and tech names more broadly.
- In London, the UK FTSE 100 managed a 0.1% gain on Friday but still ended the week down 1.6%, underlining how European markets continue to track US technology sentiment while also contending with their own macro headwinds.
Currencies
Major currencies traded mixed against the US dollar in European and US sessions.
- The euro eased from US$1.1551 to US$1.1489 during the day and was hovering near US$1.1510 at the US close, reflecting a slightly firmer dollar backdrop.
- The Australian dollar pushed higher, rising from US64.20 cents to US64.59 cents and holding around US64.50 cents into the close, supported in part by expectations for a more data-dependent RBA as monthly CPI begins.
- The Japanese yen strengthened, with the US dollar moving from JPY157.31 to JPY156.21 and sitting near JPY156.40 at the close, as investors continued to reassess US rate-cut odds and global risk appetite.
Commodities
Commodity markets were generally softer, led by crude oil. Oil prices fell to one-month lows on Friday as reports of US efforts to broker a Russia–Ukraine peace deal raised the prospect of higher future supply, while ongoing uncertainty over US interest rates weighed on risk sentiment.
- Brent crude slid US82 cents or 1.3% to US$62.56 a barrel.
- US Nymex crude dropped US94 cents or 1.6% to US$58.06 a barrel; both benchmarks were down around 3% for the week.
Base metals were mixed.
- Copper futures gained 1.0% on Friday on renewed hopes of a US rate cut, but aluminium futures dipped 1.2%. Over the week, copper fell 0.8% and aluminium lost 3.3%.
- Gold futures rose US$19.50 or 0.5% to US$4,079.50 an ounce on Friday—rebounding after an earlier decline of more than 1%—as traders increased bets on a December Fed cut following dovish remarks. Spot gold was trading near US$4,065 at the US close, though bullion still ended the week down 0.4%.
- Iron ore futures edged up US2 cents, less than 0.1%, to US$104.26 a tonne on Friday, capped by signs of softer demand and narrowing steel margins in China, but managed a 0.9% gain over the week.