- FTSE 100 up 20 points to 9,527
- Strong Nvidia earnings overnight soothe market worries
- Results from Halma, Games Workshop impress in London
4.52pm: FTSE snaps losing streak
The FTSE 100 ended its five-day losing streak on Thursday, adding 20 points at 9,527 following Nvidia’s strong earnings report and the release of the September jobs report in the US.
“Now that we are past the Nvidia earnings and payroll release, it feels like markets can rally again. It seems remarkable that just a 5% pullback can reset sentiment sufficiently for markets to react positively to earnings, but that is what has transpired,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“Stocks are up, almost uniformly across the board, while volatility is down. This is classic risk-on behaviour. If investors are still worried that the Fed won’t cut in December, they’re not showing it.”
But crypto assets have failed to rally along with stocks, gold, oil and others.
“Neither Nvidia results nor the payrolls report have too much relevance on crypto assets directly, but it is perhaps a sign of how weary investors have become in recent months, having seen the space struggle even as stock markets make record highs,” according to Beauchamp.
4.14pm: Gains pared
Gains for the FTSE and the main US stock indices have been pared in the past three quarters of an hour.
The reason is not immediately apparent, to me, anyway.
Fallers are led by WPP, JD Sports and Burberry, down 2-3%, while housebuilders and property developers are notably in red.
Ex-div stocks today were led by National Grid and Vodafone.
London's defence stocks made a strong comeback today, after experiencing a dip in the previous session on reports of a Ukraine peace deal.
3.42pm: Gold supply squeeze
Société Générale is warning that gold could face a supply squeeze similar to recent tightness seen in platinum and silver markets, driven by sustained central bank demand.
Global reserves have grown by about 1,000 tons annually over the past three years, with up to 950 tons expected in 2025.
The bank argues that even modest shifts in central bank reserve strategies, such as reallocating just 1% more into gold, could create intense demand pressure.
China remains a major buyer, with LBMA UK export statistics showing 15 tons of gold exports to the People’s Republic for September, following 10 tons in August and expected to account for 250 tons in 2025, though official data understate true purchases.
3.12pm: Fed given 35% chance of Dec rate hike after NFP report
The delayed US jobs report is not as strong as it appears at first look, says ING economist James Knightley.
While the 119,000 additions to non-farm payrolls was more than double the 51,000 expected, there were also 33k of downward revisions to the previous two months and the unemployment rate rose.
"Three usual suspects" contributed virtually all these: leisure & hospitality +47k, government +22k and private education & healthcare services +59k.
"Remember, the federal government workers who accepted deals to leave won't drop off until the October report, which will now be combined with the November report and released on 16 December," Knightly adds.
As the BLS has delayed the October NFP until the November data is released, which is not until 16 December.
This means we won't receive any more official jobs data ahead of the 10 December Federal Reserve meeting, says Knightly, "and as we aren't confident on the inflation release schedule, it is understandable that the market is only pricing a 35% chance of a 25bp cut", which is up from 24% overnight.
He says the Fed is likely to have "more work to do" in 2026, as consumer sentiment remains very downbeat on the jobs market.
2.50pm: US stocks fly out of the blocks
Wall Street has flown out of the blocks, led by Nvidia and its AI acolytes.
The Nasdaq is at the head of the pack, leaping 2.4%, with the S&P 500 jumping 1.8% and the Dow Jones up 1.4%.
Nvidia shares are up 3.63%, while among the other Mag 7 members, Alphabet and Amazon are up 3%, Apple 2.3%, Meta 2.3%, Microsoft 1%, Alphabet 3.1% and Tesla almost 5%.
Back in London, the FTSE is up 0.7%.
2.11pm: US jobs report released
September's US jobs report, delayed from its 3 October scheduled release date, was firmer than expected, with 119,000 new additions to non-farm payrolls, well ahead of the 51,000 forecast.
The unemployment rate came in at 4.4% in September, up from August's 4.3%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-on-month.
The US government shutdown, which resulted in the delay, will also mean that Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled the release of October's report, as no data was collected for the household survey to calculate the unemployment rate for that month.
October nonfarm payrolls will instead be combined with November's employment report now due on December 16, the BLS said
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said: "The one-two punch of a stellar Nvidia earnings report last night and a better-than-expected September jobs report this morning should give the market a boost, given that it directly addresses the two biggest concerns of the bears: an AI bubble and a moribund economy."
He said: "While this information will likely embolden the bulls who were on their back foot the past few weeks, it probably won’t discourage the naysayers given that Nvidia’s success doesn’t mean that valuations are appropriate across the board and that companies aren’t 'overspending' on a technology that will take years (or decades) to prove its worth in terms of ROI."
Also, as the jobs data from September is even more backwards-looking than usual, "it is easy to dismiss and claim that the situation is much worse right now", he said.
"We would argue that a middle approach is the best – it is true that valuations are high and that there is some froth in the market, however, the spending on AI is real (just look at Nvidia’s earnings) and whether or not the spending turns out to be overdone won’t be known for many years.
"It is also worth pointing out that employment has been weakening and the economy is slowing, however, there doesn’t appear to be conclusive proof of a recession and the market can keep climbing a wall of worry until this business cycle ends, so it wouldn’t be prudent to go to cash to avoid something that may be farther in the future than most people realize."
1.57pm: What could next year bring?
With 2026 approaching, UBS says investors "are watching to see if AI innovation, fiscal support, and easier monetary policy can continue giving markets the momentum to break free from the drag of debt, demographics, and deglobalization".
This is the introduction to the Swiss bank's 'year ahead' note.
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS global wealth management unit, says: “As we look ahead to 2026, the question is whether the powerful forces of AI, fiscal stimulus, and easing monetary policy can propel global markets beyond the gravity of debt, demographics, and deglobalization, toward a new era of growth.
"Navigating these structural shifts demands that investors adapt their strategies by focusing on sectors and themes where capital is flowing and transformation is taking place."
In the note, Haefele and colleagues set out three scenarios for AI.
Bullish: Robust, broad-based AI spending and rapid adoption. Monetisation exceeds expectations, driving productivity and corporate profits. “Agentic” and physical AI applications accelerate, fueling optimism and further investment.
Base case: Solid AI investment continues, with steady adoption and gradual monetisation. Productivity gains are incremental, supporting business sentiment but not transforming macro growth.
Bearish: AI investment stalls or contracts due to disappointing monetisation, technical setbacks, or obsolescence. Corporate caution leads to reduced capex and slower adoption.
Under the first, the S&P would climb from its current 6,642 to 8,400, while the base case forecast is for 7,700, with the bearish outcome being a slide to 4,500.
Under the same scenarios, the EuroStoxx 50 would rise from its current 5,600 to 6,800 or 6,200 under the first two options, or sink to 4,400.
In a separate analysis, UBS predicts that AI capex will remain a driver of near-term growth in the markets, with $4.7 trillion spent between 2026 and 2030, of which $2.4 trillion has already been set out this year alone.
Haefele and co expect $571 billion of this spending to come in 2026.
While there is scepticism about AI, (see Burry and Man Group below) UBS says businesses are rapidly becoming major AI users, with 'agentic AI' potentially driving compute demand to five times today’s installed base by 2030 and physical AI such as robots maybe driving demand even higher.
12.39pm: US futures set to open higher
US equity futures are pointing firmly higher, though are down from earlier levels.
Nasdaq futures are out in front, up 1.6%, with those for the S&P 500 rising 1.2% and Dow Jones futures up 0.6%.
European markets remain in the green, with the London, Paris and Madrid benchmarks up 0.6-0.7% and Germany’s DAX up 0.85%.
Market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation says: "So, Nvidia has sounded the all-clear? Perhaps, but maybe not."
Even after today’s rally Nvidia is still down around 8% from its recent high at the beginning of November, he points out.
"If today’s rally has legs, and enough buyers come in to propel Nvidia to fresh all-time highs, then that would be a strong vote of confidence, not just in Nvidia, but the whole AGI trade.
"But it’s also fair to say that there are growing concerns about the scale of investment in AGI given the lack of revenues, let alone profits, to date.
"And while there’s little doubt that the ‘picks and shovels’ sellers like Nvidia have significant earnings, the feeling is that many of its customers may not be around in a few years' time."
As with the dotcom bubble of 2000, many AI-adjacent companies "will fail to make it, and will end up going bust, leaving nothing but huge, smouldering craters of debt behind them", Morrison says.
"That’s not to say that we’re about to see the end of the world as we know it. And the stock market rally may well have further to run. But investors should take care, consider valuations and be far more discerning than they have been to date."
12.12pm: Defence 'overreaction' to Ukraine peace speculation
Defence shares are known for often overreacting to the faintest whiff of geopolitics, and this week provided a prime example, with a report that the US had drafted a new peace plan for the war in Ukraine sending European defence stocks down roughly 4.5% in a single session.
JPMorgan thinks the sell-off was a significant overshoot, driven by headlines rather than substance.
When the details leaked, JPMorgan argued that the prospect was unlikely and even if it was true, would harden attitudes in Europe and push governments to accelerate the military build-up, not wind it down.
11.47am: Sustainability conference
Urgent action from fund managers and other institutional investors is needed to address the systemic risks to the planet, attendees at the inaugural Rathbones Greenbank Responsible Investment Summit in London have been told.
In the opening session of the event, David Cox, head of Rathbones Greenbank, said: "As stewards of capital, we have a responsibility that extends far beyond financial returns.
"The world is at a tipping point - climate, nature, and human rights are all on the line. We urge every investor, adviser, and business leader to join in driving real change."
Rathbones, which has more than £113 billion in client assets, set up the summit to bring together the worlds of investment, charity, and advisory communities to explore the future of responsible investing.
Cox added that instituonal investors have a responsibility "not only to protect and grow our clients’ wealth, but to recognise that the systems that underpin prosperity — from stable climates to functioning ecosystems and fair labour practices — are under strain. What we invest in, how we engage, and the expectations we set all have consequences beyond financial returns."
On the summit's agenda are sessions featuring insights from leading experts on climate science, human rights, and sustainable finance, as well as a keynote from James Alexander, chief executive of UKSIF, and a fireside session with CEO of the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, Lindsay Hooper.
11.19am: Mixed manufacturing survey from CBI
Manufacturing output volumes in the three months to November fell at the fastest pace since August 2020, according to the CBI industrial trends survey, which also contained encouraging news about inflation.
Companies in the manufacturing industry expect volumes to decline at a similar pace in next three months.
Order books remained at historically weak levels in November, the CBI found, while export order books improved compared to the previous month, remaining well below average.
Expectations for selling price inflation eased in November.
On output volumes, the weighted balance fell to -30% from -16% in the three months to October.
Output decreased in 13 out of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to November, with the fall being driven by the food, drink & tobacco, chemicals, and mechanical engineering sub-sectors.
Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, said: "Manufacturers face a challenging end to the year. What’s striking in this month’s survey is how consistently firms link the slowdown to uncertainty ahead of the Budget, with customers delaying purchases and investment until they know what’s coming.
"With the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government’s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies. For manufacturers, this must include accelerated support to address punitive energy costs and increased Growth and Skills Levy flexibility – interventions that would boost competitivness, increase confidence, and unlock growth."
10.35am: Games Workshop stomping higher
Games Workshop has marauded 12% higher to its own new all-time high, as growth slowed less than expected from a strong performance last year, and a 100p dividend was announced.
This takes the year-to-date payout to 325p, up from 185p a year earlier.
House broker Peel Hunt said the 15% rise in core revenue and at least 6% growth in PBT is "an impressive performance in our view, given the tough comps", as licence revenue last year was unusually strong.
Licensing income, which includes payments from partners for the use of its intellectual property such as the Space Marine video games, fell to around £16 million from last year's £30.1 million.
Peel Hunt increased its full-year PBT forecast 9% to £240 million on the back of the update.
9.36am: Nvidia ignites broader rally, but suspicions remain
Nvidia’s earnings have "soothed concerns about AI and lifted global sock markets", says Neil Wilson, market analyst at Saxo.
"The positivity has ignited a broad relief rally," he says, with S&P 500 futures now trading above their 50-day moving average again.
The TL/DR summary from Wilson is: "positive earnings momentum, raised guidance, strong margins and upbeat commentary from CEO Jensen Huang means AI valuations – which have considerably rerated this month – are no longer a clear barrier to a rally into Christmas."
Worries about circular financing of AI deals have led to legendary short-seller Michael Burry tweeting a picture (see below) showing the myriad of deals between AI companies and hyperscalers, where he says it's a "fraud", adding: "True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers."
Wilson notes that Nvidia said in its report that there is no guarantee the company would finalise its $100 billion deal with OpenAI, reminding investors that an announcement is not a contract.
He also flags credit markets, where hedge fund manager Man Group has warned of "a glut of supply of lower quality names in the AI space" issuing debt that "might be too much for markets to stomach".
In a note entitled ‘Why Bond Investors Aren’t Totally Buying the AI Hype’, Man Group says capex rollout plans are "not as gold-plated as the shiny prospectuses might suggest".
Nevertheless, says Wilson, "the healthy beat and raise by the chipmaker has boosted risk appetite", pointing to shares in correlated names like Palantir rallying 4% after-hours, while Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft also rose, CoreWeave jumped 10%, Nebius rallied almost 9%, and Super Micro Computer rose 6%.
Every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with ALL the give-and-take deals would be unreadable. The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their… pic.twitter.com/0XyGQ8FjuE
— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) November 19, 2025
8.42am: Halma benefits from AI rollout
More on Halma, which is up almost 11% at a new all-time high.
Interim results from the safety product group saw full-year guidance raised on the back of record first-half revenues and profits, helped by strength across all divisions and stronger momentum in its photonics business due to AI-related demand.
Halma benefits from AI data centres primarily by supplying photonics solutions and safety/environmental monitoring equipment that are critical in the construction and operation of these facilities.
In its results, the company said increased demand from a long-standing “hyperscaler” technology company to support the development of its data centre capabilities accounted for 19% of group revenue in the period, up from 14% a year ago.
Analyst Mark Davies Jones at Stifel said: "Following swiftly on Nvidia's results last night, Halma, one of the UK's few AI/ datacentre beneficiaries, has again beaten expectations and raised guidance."
"What is impressive is that group performance is not just about exceptional growth in Avo Photonics (where sales appear to be up around 55% YoY) - there is strong growth across the portfolio, and an upside margin surprise at Safety (27% margin)."
8.15am: FTSE 100 opens higher with Halma in lead
It's been a fairly good start for the FTSE 100, rising 65 points to 9,572.4 in early trades.
Halma and Games Workshop are the top risers, up 9.6% and 8.6% respectively on the back of half-year numbers.
Polar Capital Technology Trust is next, up 3.3% as it is set to gain from the Nvidia boost to the tech space.
Looking at the 20 largest companies on the index, only three are in the red (BAT, National Grid and Diageo).
7.58am: Nvidia 'completely changes the market mood'
"It's fair to say that Nvidia's results have completely changed the market mood and pushed out any bubble fears for another day," says Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
He flags today's importance for the market, which was "baying desperately for information", as US non-farm payrolls data later follows on the back of Nvidia's earnings last night and "the start of the return to business as usual for US data".
On Nvidia, where the shares are up 5% in afterhours trading, he notes that revenues beat expectations ($57 billion versus $55.2 billion expected) and gave strong revenue guidance for the current quarter ($65 billion vs $61.9 billion expected).
The company’s CFO also suggested that Nvidia could even exceed its recent target of $500 billion of revenue for the next few quarters.
US stocks futures were markedly higher overnight thanks to that, with other tech stocks that have recently been weak also climbing in the afterhours trading period, with CoreWeave around 9% higher as an example.
"With Nvidia’s result out the way, attention is now quickly turning to the delayed US jobs report for September, which we were meant to have nearly 7 weeks ago," says Reid.
"Normally, a data release for a couple of months ago wouldn’t be too impactful, but a December cut likely relies on a weak print, which is clearly possible, especially optically when the breakeven rate of payrolls is as low as it is in 2025.
"Remember the jobs report back on August 1, when huge downward revisions undercut the story of labour market resilience after Liberation Day, which paved the way for the Fed to resume cutting in September."
The consensus is for headline payrolls to come in at +50k with private payrolls +65k, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
7.44am: Nationwide 'number one'
It's not a listed company, but Nationwide Building Society is a key part of the mortgage and savings market.
Despite a quieter mortgage market in the first half of the year, the mutual has reported a 2% increase in profit to £977 million, helped by growing market share and the first full reporting period to include its Virgin Money acquisition, which led to total income jumping 46% to £3.1 billion.
Statutory profit before tax – which includes one-off costs and a £0.4 billion 'Fairer Share' payment made to members – fell to £486 million from £568 million.
The building society also became the first provider to reach one million current account switchers since the industry-wide scheme launched in 2013, attracting more than three times the number of switchers as its nearest competitor, as its customer satisfaction levels trumped the big banks.
7.34am: JD Sports profit warning
JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD., OTC:JDSPY) has warned that profits this year would be at the lower end of expectations despite what it called a “solid” third quarter performance, as signs of weakening consumer confidence start to show in its key markets.
The sportswear retailer's like-for-like sales for the 13 weeks to 1 November fell by 1.7%, or rose 8.1% when acquisitions are included.
Total LFL sales for the first nine months of its financial year are down 2.2%, with total sales up 15.7%.
Chief executive Régis Schultz said: “In the near term, as we enter an important trading period, we are mindful of recent weak macro and consumer indicators in our key markets. These lead us to take a pragmatic approach for our FY26 profit outturn.”
7.16am: FTSE 100 set for strong start as markets boosted by Nvidia earnings
The FTSE 100 will have another attempt at defrosting on a chilly Thursday morning as the market mood warmed up after Nvidia earnings overnight.
On the futures market, the London benchmark has been called 53 points higher, following a mostly flat day that fizzled out with a 45-point fall to close at 9,507.41 and extend its losing streak to a fifth day.
US stocks turned around their dry spell overnight, led by a 0.6% gain for the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Dow Jones inched up 0.1%.
Then, after the bell, Nvidia reported third-quarter results that beat expectations, supported by increased demand for its AI-focused data centre products.
US futures and Asian markets are mostly higher this morning, with Japan's Nikkei jumping 2.65% and Korea's Kospi up 1.9%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures are pointing to increases of 1.8% and 1.3%.