After B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher PLC (LSE:KGF) put together stronger first-half results than expected back in September, Deutsche Bank reckons next week's third-quarter update might disappoint.
The bank said the interim numbers two months ago benefited from a "robust improvement" in core sales over the period, with full-year guidance for profit before tax set at the "upper end" of the earlier £480-540 million range.
Deutsche analysts said they felt this was "slightly conservative" and that management were maybe holding some of the earnings beat "in reserve" in case trading conditions deteriorated.
"We suspect this has happened" in recent weeks, the analysts said, with some mixed industry data since that leads them to expect group like-for-like sales falling 0.5%, below the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth and around a 150bps sequential slowdown from the seconds quarter.
This "may challenge the school of thought that Kingfisher is a structural rather than cyclical investment case".
The main difference is a weaker France, but the analysts said there "is increasingly a question of whether France matters to the investment case at this stage but we do not see an earnings upgrade with the 3Q results next week" and "we see a risk of disappointment"
Nevertheless, based on the improved guidance at the interims, the Deutsche price target was upped to 285p from 280p, with the 'hold' recommendation staying unchanged.