Panmure Liberum said thermal coal markets are showing a more typical seasonal tightening this winter, with Asia’s physical prices rising after several years of disrupted trading patterns.
The broker noted that some prices in Asia have gained between 7% and 22% over the past two months, signalling a genuine improvement in supply and demand conditions.
Analysts, in a note, said the rally contrasts with recent winters when factors such as the EU’s exit from coal-fired power, discounted Russian exports, and Indonesia’s attempted price floors suppressed seasonal behaviour. “There’s some bullish action in Thermal Coal World… something more ‘normal’ is emerging in the coal trade this winter,” the broker said.
Panmure highlighted the normalisation of Indonesia–China trade flows as a key driver. Indonesia abandoned its export price floors in August after a sharp dip in shipments, and China has since moved to cap domestic production to avoid oversupply.
Even so, forward thermal coal prices and natural gas benchmarks have not yet responded to the move in physical coal, with Panmure describing both markets as relatively steady.
The broker tracks market exposure through Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) and Thungela, alongside gas-linked producers Kistos and Serica.