ASX200 futures are pointing lower, down 73 points (-0.85%) at 8:30 am AEDT.
The ASX200 finished 2 points (0.02%) higher at 8,636, clawing back early weakness after an initial slide to 8,588.9 – its first move below 8,600 since mid-July. The dip followed a 1.8% fall in BHP to a low of $42.01 after the UK High Court found the miner liable for the 2015 Fundão dam collapse in Brazil. Sector performance was mixed, with IT (+1.23%), Energy (+1.10%) and Real Estate (+0.61%) leading gains, while Health Care (-0.43%), Utilities (-0.26%) and Financials (-0.24%) weighed on the index.
Tech and energy names underpinned the rebound as US equity futures turned higher during our afternoon session.
In tech, DroneShield rallied 11.59% to $2.60, Appen climbed 6.11% to $0.70, Megaport added 3.21% to $14.16 and Nextdc gained 3.18% to $14.26. Energy stocks tracked crude higher after a Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub, with Ampol up 3.82% to $32.05, Viva Energy 3.17% to $1.95, Beach Energy 1.18% to $1.28 and Woodside 0.88% to $26.47. Elsewhere, Elders jumped 6.31% to $7.41 on a 12% lift in FY25 profit to $50.3 million, while Pro Medicus rose 4.23% to $259.35 after securing a new five-year, $44 million imaging contract with Advanced Radiology Management.
Attention today turns to the RBA’s November meeting minutes – where rates were held at 3.60% – with markets pricing about 2bp of easing for December and roughly 14bp of cuts by May 2026.
US: Wall Street soft as Nvidia becomes the swing factor for AI trade
US equity markets opened the week in the red, with technology stocks leading declines as investors braced for a heavy run of data and earnings. The focus is squarely on Nvidia, with the AI bellwether due to report after the Wall Street close on Wednesday (Thursday morning AEDT).
With the Nasdaq 100 having logged its first close below 25,000 in nearly a month, Nvidia’s update is seen as pivotal: a strong beat and upbeat guidance could reignite the push toward 27,000, while a miss or cautious outlook risks a deeper correction of around 15% toward 22,500.
Although most tech names finished lower, Alphabet bucked the trend, rising 3.11% to $285.60 after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new stake in the Google parent. On the macro front, Fed Governor Christopher Waller – a key voice on the FOMC – struck a dovish tone, warning the labour market may be approaching “stall speed” amid softer hiring and downward payroll revisions. He played down the risk of inflation reaccelerating and reiterated support for a 25 bp cut in December. Even so, market pricing barely budged, with futures still assigning only a 44% chance of a December cut, down from 68% at the start of last week.
Looking ahead, US data on ADP employment, homebuilder sentiment, import prices and industrial production, plus earnings from Home Depot, will help shape expectations into year-end.
Europe: Risk appetite fades ahead US jobs and geopolitical tensions simmer
European sharemarkets edged lower on Monday as investors stepped back from big directional bets ahead of a closely watched US jobs report, which could offer clearer signals on the strength of the world’s largest economy and the trajectory for interest rates.
- The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index slipped 0.6%.
- London’s FTSE 100 dipped 0.2%, reflecting a broadly cautious tone across the region.
Sector-wise, luxury and retail names were under pressure. UK-listed Burberry fell 6.6% and France’s LVMH lost 2%, dragging the luxury complex lower, while retail stocks slid 2.3% with JD Sports down 4.7%. Away from equities, geopolitical tensions remained a background risk, with Japan seeking to cool an escalating dispute with China over Taiwan that has prompted Beijing to urge citizens to avoid travel to its East Asian neighbour.
For European markets, the combination of soft risk appetite, geopolitical unease and looming US data kept gains capped and encouraged a defensive stance.
Currencies: US dollar stays firm as growth and rate differentials dominate
Major currencies weakened against the US dollar in European and US trade, underscoring ongoing demand for the greenback as growth and rate differentials remain supportive.
- The euro eased from US$1.1614 to US$1.1582, trading near US$1.1590 at the US close.
- The Australian dollar slipped from US65.36 cents to US64.82 cents and was around US64.90 cents late in New York, ahead of today’s RBA minutes and the release of the new monthly CPI time series, both of which could influence local rate expectations.
- The Japanese yen also softened, moving from 154.56 per US dollar to JPY155.29 and sitting near JPY155.20 at the close.
The modest currency moves reflected a market still weighing dovish commentary from Fed officials against a cautious reassessment of how quickly central banks globally might ease policy. With US rate-cut odds for December pared back and upcoming data potentially reaffirming US resilience, the dollar continues to find buyers on dips.
Commodities: Oil dips on supply restart as iron ore finds support
Global oil prices eased on Monday as supply resumed from Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub, which had been shut for two days following a Ukrainian attack.
- The Brent crude benchmark fell 19 US cents, or 0.3%, to US$64.20 a barrel.
- US Nymex crude slipped 18 US cents, or 0.3%, to US$59.91.
The pullback reversed some of the earlier risk premium but left prices underpinned by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and infrastructure vulnerability in the Black Sea.
Base metals were weaker, weighed down by the firmer US dollar, with copper futures down 1% and aluminium lower by 1.9%.
Gold futures declined US$19.70, or 0.5%, to US$4,074.50 an ounce, pressured by dollar strength and reduced expectations of a near-term US rate cut; spot gold traded near US$4,042 at the US close.
In contrast, iron ore futures climbed 47 US cents, or 0.5%, to US$104.42 a tonne, supported by firm near-term demand and revived hopes for stimulus in top consumer China after a run of soft economic data.