The prevailing opinion suggests the gig economy is a passing fad, a sort of digital paper round that will melt away once the labour market tightens.
Goldman’s latest look at the sector suggests otherwise. Scratch beneath the headlines about a cooling US jobs market and you find millions turning to gig work to plug gaps in their income, smooth lumpy hours or simply keep busy.
It is not glamorous, but it does tell us something useful about how workers behave when the main job market starts to wobble.
Goldman reckons between five and 15% of Americans now do some form of gig work, which in this context means anything outside a regular, long-term payroll job.
That can be the familiar platform work, such as driving for Uber or delivering groceries, or it can be old-fashioned freelancing and on-call shifts.
Platform work accounts for only a sliver of the total, about two to 4% of the population, yet it is the only bit growing at any real pace. Goldman cites data showing annual growth of 5% to 8% in people signing up to the driver and courier apps.
The research also picks apart who these workers are. Gig workers tend to skew younger and more female than the traditional workforce.
They are more likely to hold several jobs and more likely to work part-time. The numbers also challenge the assumption that gig work is a lifestyle choice. Nearly half of those surveyed said they use it to top up the wages from a main job. Only a small minority see it as their primary income.
What you earn depends on the task. Gridwise, an app that tracks drivers’ actual hours and takings, reports that delivery workers earn roughly two-thirds of the hourly pay they would get doing the same job for an employer.
Rideshare drivers fare better, with earnings closer to those of traditional driving jobs.
The broader point is that gig work rarely replaces a standard wage like-for-like, particularly once you factor in fuel, insurance and wear on the car. But it does offer speed. When people lose hours or take a pay cut, about twenty % turn to gig work to plug the hole.
There is another wrinkle in the data. Official job statistics capture far less of this activity than you might think because surveys look only at paid work done in a specific week.
Gig work is sporadic, so someone who drives at weekends but not in the survey week may show up as unemployed or out of the labour force entirely.
Adjust for this, and the US employment rate would sit closer to 65% rather than the official 60%.
The most interesting finding for investors is what gig activity signals about the wider economy. In American cities where payroll growth has slowed this year, hours worked on gig platforms have risen.
That suggests workers are using gig opportunities as a buffer when the day job softens. Demand for these services has held up so far, but Goldman notes that a recession would dent it, particularly if households cut back on discretionary spending such as food delivery and rides.
For now, the gig economy remains a pressure valve. It does not pay enough to replace the main job, and it cannot carry an entire labour force through a downturn.
But it offers a glimpse into how workers adapt long before the monthly payroll numbers catch up, which is why economists keep returning to it.