UBS analysts believe Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL, ETR:APC)'s Apple Pay desktop adoption is progressing throughout 2025, expecting additional merchants to adopt Apple Pay desktop after the holiday season.
In a note to clients on Friday, the analysts wrote that their estimates suggest Apple Pay US online volumes will be slightly larger than PayPal's Branded Checkout in 2025 and beyond.
They believe Apple Pay volumes represented about 6% of their total estimated $3.2 trillion total US eCommerce market in 2024, valued at about $205 billion.
After largely focusing on the mobile iOS user portion of eCommerce for most of its history, Apple is now expanding to third party browsers on non-iOS desktop devices, the analysts noted.
UBS analysts added that, in their estimation, Apple Pay has the greatest penetration in the non-Retail mobile and Retail mobile segments, excluding Amazon and Shopify.
Apple shares rose 0.6% to $274.54 in midday trading on Friday.