It is not every day that a company makes a habit of turning in positive clinical results at a pace that would make even the most seasoned drug developer blink.
Yet AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) has managed just that this year, and Shore Capital thinks the torrent of data is enough to justify a fresh uplift to forecasts, even if the real strategic test lies a little further down the road.
The broker highlights an “exceptional” run of research and development output: sixteen positive pivotal trials so far in 2025 and another twenty Phase III readouts expected next year.
Oncology is doing the heavy lifting. Enhertu, co-developed with Daiichi Sankyo, has chalked up results across several DESTINY trials, most notably DESTINY-Breast09, which showed a 44% reduction in the risk of disease progression when used in combination with Perjeta.
The United States Food and Drug Administration has granted that study a Priority Review, with a decision expected by early 2026.
Datroway, another partnership with Daiichi, is moving quickly too, with improved survival in front-line triple-negative breast cancer strengthening its commercial case. Imfinzi is broadening its reach beyond lung cancer, supported by data in bladder and gastric settings.
Shore says the breadth of these successes allows it to raise its 2026 revenue forecast by 5% to $65 billion and increase its core earnings estimate by 6%.
Upgrades span a range of oncology drugs, including Imfinzi and Enhertu, as well as the rare-disease franchise. This brings the broker ahead of consensus for both revenue and earnings in that year.
Valuation-wise, AstraZeneca trades on roughly sixteen times forecast earnings for 2026, running at a premium to most European peers but close to its own history. The broker’s fair value rises to 15,000p from 14,500p and the Buy rating stays in place.
There is however a clock ticking in the background. From 2032 three major oncology therapies, Tagrisso, Imfinzi and Calquence, are expected to lose exclusivity, creating what Shore calls a “greater than $20 billion sales headwind” through the middle of the decade.
To soften the blow, the company will need to keep spending. Management has already guided for research and development to stay at roughly one-fifth of revenue. Shore argues consensus understates how much that figure must grow and has lifted its own estimate for 2026 research and development to $14.8 billion.
There is only so much that can be squeezed from efficiencies in sales, general and administrative costs or from gross margins, which are unlikely to bounce back given United States drug-pricing pressures. That leaves growth as the main lever.
To reach a mid-thirties operating margin in 2026, Shore estimates AstraZeneca needs to deliver revenue growth of at least 9% at constant exchange rates, alongside a similar step-up in operating profit.
The firm says this looks ambitious but points out that reported figures for 2025 flatter to deceive. Last year’s one-off $600 million Lynparza milestone payment creates a mechanical drag on the comparatives, masking what Shore calculates to be underlying growth of about 10% in revenue and mid-teens in earnings.
Beyond oncology, the cardiovascular and metabolic franchise has offered a reminder that AstraZeneca’s future does not rest on one therapeutic pillar.
Baxdrostat, an early-stage blood-pressure drug, posted encouraging reductions in systolic readings in hard-to-treat patients, which could turn into a multibillion-dollar opportunity. That matters given the looming loss of exclusivity for Farxiga, once a mainstay diabetes treatment.
For now, the weight of evidence still sits in AstraZeneca’s favour. Shore’s long-term model edges its 2030 revenue expectation up to $82 billion, ahead of the company’s own $80 billion aspiration.
Most of the incremental gains are rooted in oncology, but next-generation medicines across the portfolio play their part. The nearer challenge is managing the costs needed to keep this pipeline flowing.
The longer one is stepping into the post-2030 world without a hole in the top line. On both counts, Shore believes the foundations are in place, though it concedes the next few years will demand a steady hand.