Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) is showing signs of stronger-than-expected performance during the 2025 Double-11 shopping festival, which runs from October 15 to November 11, according to Jefferies analysts following recent expert discussions.
The analysts highlighted that Taobao Instant Commerce, Alibaba’s on-demand shopping service, is complementing traditional e-commerce by driving additional daily active users (DAU) to both Taobao, the company’s consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platform, and Tmall, its business-to-consumer (B2C) platform. These incremental users are contributing to higher order volumes, they noted.
Excluding quick commerce, gross merchandise value (GMV) is projected to rise about 11.7% year-over-year during the Double-11 period, slightly above previous estimates of 10%.
Marketing trends were also discussed, with merchants increasingly focusing on performance-based advertising amid recent industry developments, including tax deduction policies.
The analysts noted that AI-powered tools are improving click-through rates, conversion rates, and overall consumer insights across different metrics.
Category-level performance showed varied growth. IP toys saw triple-digit gains; beauty and apparel grew by around 19% and 3% year-over-year, respectively; outdoor products rose 16%; and home appliances increased 13%.
Product returns were largely consistent with or slightly higher than last year, peaking during the pre-sale period and decreasing afterward.
Regarding other platforms, GMV growth was fastest for Xiaohongshu and Tencent Video Accounts from a low base, followed by Douyin, Pinduoduo, Kuaishou, and JD.com.
Analysts currently maintain a “Buy” rating on Alibaba, with a price target of $230 per share (HK$223).
Alibaba’s US-listed shares traded down 1.7% at about $158 on Wednesday afternoon.