HudBay Minerals Inc. (TSX:HBM) reported a sharp drop in third-quarter profit on Tuesday as production interruptions in Canada and Peru weighed on sales, though the miner reaffirmed its 2025 output guidance and lowered its cost outlook, supported by a new partnership with Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp.
The company blamed the earnings miss on deferred copper shipments from Peru and wildfire-related shutdowns in Manitoba, which reduced third-quarter copper production to 24,205 tonnes. Gold output, however, rose to 53,581 ounces on stronger grades in Peru and at its New Britannia and Stall mills.
Adjusted earnings per share fell 77% to $0.03 from $0.13 a year earlier, missing analysts’ estimates of $0.20, according to LSEG data.
Revenue dropped nearly 29% to $346.8 million, well below consensus expectations of $561.8 million.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $142.6 million, missing the $158 million average analyst forecast.
Hudbay said it continues to expect full-year copper and gold production near the low end of its guidance range but improved its full-year cash cost forecast to between $0.15 and $0.35 per pound, down from prior guidance of $0.65 to $0.85, reflecting higher gold by-product credits and tighter cost control.
The miner’s balance sheet strengthened during the quarter, with net debt falling to $435.9 million, or roughly 0.5 times trailing 12-month EBITDA. Hudbay also booked a $322 million impairment reversal following a $600 million agreement with Mitsubishi, which will acquire a 30% stake in the company’s Copper World project in Arizona.
Despite the weaker quarter, analysts at Jefferies said the results remained within Hudbay’s 2025 production guidance and viewed the cost improvements as a positive signal. “Costs were a bright spot, with HBM improving its ‘25 cost guidance,” Jefferies wrote, reiterating a “Buy” rating on the stock.
Hudbay expects gold production from Peru to exceed the top end of its 2025 guidance range, while copper and gold output overall will likely remain toward the lower end. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and said deferred concentrate shipments should lift fourth-quarter results.
Shares of HudBay added 2.4% in New York and 1.2% in Toronto on Wednesday morning.