Copper prices may look becalmed for now, but Citi thinks the metal is merely pausing for breath.
Its latest Metal Matters note argues that the red metal could climb to $12,000 a tonne by the second quarter of 2026, even as near-term demand data remain underwhelming.
Manufacturing sentiment, particularly in China, continues to drag on consumption.
Citi’s trackers show global copper use rising by just 1% year on year in September, with demand outside China up 2% and China itself flat.
The bank expects this subdued pattern to persist through the rest of 2025, reflecting a stronger base in 2024 and weak industrial activity.
That weakness, though, looks temporary. Citi expects easier US fiscal policy and looser global monetary conditions to lift consumption from 2026 onwards. At the same time, mine supply constraints and the prospect of structural deficits should tighten the market.
The key message is that copper’s price may keep looking past the soft short-term physical picture. Traders are already positioning for the expected recovery, supported by what Citi calls “bullish US copper arbitrage dynamics”.
For investors, that implies the lull could prove deceptive. A metal long seen as a proxy for global growth may be entering another phase of scarcity-driven strength, even if the evidence is yet to show up in factory output.
In copper’s case, patience may well prove a valuable commodity.