ASX 200 futures were up 18pts (+0.20%) at 8:30am AEDT. The index fell 17pts (-0.19%) to 8,818 yesterday after an early rally to 8,875.6 reversed on Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) Q1 FY26 update.
CBA dropped 6.59% to $163.40 despite a 2% lift in cash profit to $2.6b, with pressure from a contracting NIM, rising costs and competition. Among peers, NAB -1.32% to $42.70; ANZ +0.47%; Westpac +1.34%.
Defensives led, with Utilities (+1.70%), Energy (+1.33%) and Real Estate (+1.17%) outperforming, while Financials (-1.97%) dragged. Lithium and gold miners surged. Liontown (+7.83%), Pilbara (+7.50%), Mineral Resources (+5.96%), IGO (+5.43%) all gained and among golds, Resolute (+4.49%), Newmont (+4.33%), Northern Star (+3.18%) and Genesis (+2.82%) were higher.
Yesterday, Westpac’s November Consumer Sentiment jumped 12.8% to 103.8—its first move above the 100 “optimists-beat-pessimists” line since February 2022. The rebound came despite a hotter-than-expected Q3 inflation print that cooled hopes of further RBA cuts . Attention now turns to Thursday, November 13’s labour force report, with markets tipping unemployment to edge down to 4.4% on a 20,000 jobs gain. Markets are pricing only around 2.5bp of RBA easing for December and around 18bp by June 2026.
US investors move out of tech and into blue chips
US stocks rotated out of pricey tech into blue-chips and cyclicals as bets firmed on a December Fed cut and a near-term end to the government shutdown.
Softer labour signals—ADP showing job losses into October—saw Goldman Sachs flag a around 50,000 fall in non-farm payrolls.
Tech weakened: Moody’s reportedly joined Fitch in downgrading Oracle; CoreWeave slid 16.3% on weak guidance; Nvidia (-3%), AMD (-2.7%) and Oracle (-1.9%, ~33% off its September peak) all fell.
Attention turns to remarks from Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic and Miran, plus Q3 results from Cisco and On.
Rates now imply around 17bp of cuts in December and approximately 85bp by the end of 2026.
Europe hits record highs
European equities closed at record highs on Tuesday on optimism that the US shutdown will end and policy easing is drawing closer.
Healthcare led (+2.9%) with Novo Nordisk +6.4% on upbeat broker commentary; luxury rose +2.4%, banks +1.1%.
- The FTSEurofirst 300 gained 1.3%.
- In London, the FTSE 100 added 1.2% as softer UK labour data reinforced hopes of a December BoE cut.
The UK unemployment rate reached 5.0% (four-year high).
Currencies
The US dollar eased in European and US trade.
- EUR/USD rose from 1.1556 to 1.1604, ending near 1.1585.
- AUD/USD lifted from US$0.6513 to US$0.6537, trading around US$0.6530 at the US close.
- USD/JPY retreated as the yen firmed from 154.44 to 153.67, last near 154.15.
The softer greenback reflected growing expectations of Fed easing amid weakening US labour signals and improved risk sentiment tied to an anticipated resolution of the US government shutdown.
Commodities
Crude rose on Tuesday on fresh US sanctions tightening around Russian oil and optimism about the US shutdown ending, though oversupply concerns capped gains.
- Brent +US$1.10 (+1.7%) to US$65.16/bbl.
- WTI +US$0.91 (+1.5%) to US$61.04/bbl.
Base metals slipped.
- Copper -0.8%, aluminium -0.6%.
- Gold eased as traders took profits after an Asian-session spike above US$4,140/oz; December futures -US$5.70 (-0.1%) to US$4,116.30, spot near US$4,129 at the US close.
- Iron ore futures dipped US$0.41 (-0.4%) to US$103.56/t as China demand signals softened despite hopes for Beijing stimulus next month.
Looking ahead
Tonight’s European calendar is light; focus remains on incoming US data and global policy expectations. In Australia today, home-lending figures and CBA’s Household Spending Insights are due, with Aristocrat Leisure earnings and Domino’s/Flight Centre AGMs also in view.