Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL, ETR:APC)’s latest iPhone surge in China may be losing steam after an initial wave of strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, according to Jefferies analysts, who said sales are likely to taper as discounts and subsidies run out.
Jefferies estimates that iPhone volumes in China grew about 40% year-over-year in October and 38% during the first 30 days of the Double 11 shopping period, driven by robust demand for the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max models.
However, analysts said that momentum is unlikely to continue as Tmall’s subsidy program nears its limit and local government incentives for electronics are drying up across major cities and provinces.
Lead times for the iPhone 17 Pro Max have dropped to nearly zero, and even the base model’s delivery time has fallen 60% week-over-week to about one week, the firm noted. “We believe iPhone’s volume in China has peaked,” Jefferies analysts wrote, forecasting around 92 million shipments for the second half of 2025, up 8% from a year earlier.
Jefferies maintains an “Underperform” stance on Apple with a price target of $246.99. Shares of Apple were trading around $269 on Monday afternoon.