Australian shares are set to bounce after a steadier night on global markets, with ASX 200 futures up 64 points (+0.72%) at 8:30 am AEDT. The shift in tone follows a strong buy-the-dip session in the US, where firmer economic data and improving sentiment helped ease concerns that earlier tech weakness might snowball into something broader.
Wall Street: Dip-buying returns
US markets clawed back ground after their sharpest decline in nearly a month. The S&P 500 rose 0.37%, the Nasdaq added 0.65% and the Dow finished 0.48% higher. Small caps led the gains, suggesting investors were willing to take on risk rather than hide in defensives. Stronger reads on the services sector and private payrolls helped steady nerves, while the volatility index eased back towards the high-teens — a sign investors were not rushing for the exits.
Corporate earnings also helped. Amgen surged after upgrading guidance, and AMD regained lost ground despite cautious revenue commentary. Netflix revealed accelerating engagement in its ad-supported tier, reinforcing that earnings leverage is still improving across the streaming model. On the downside, Super Micro’s weak guidance triggered a sell-off and highlighted how price-sensitive markets have become around anything linked to the AI infrastructure build.
Bond yields pushed higher, with the US 10-year edging toward 4.16%, reflecting slightly reduced expectations of a December rate cut. A notable policy development emerged in Washington, where Supreme Court justices signalled doubts that the administration has authority to implement sweeping global tariffs without congressional approval — a potential turning point in the tariff narrative that has dominated the year.
ASX yesterday: Banks strong, resources weak
The ASX 200 slipped 0.13% on Wednesday to 8,802, as early selling in resources and technology overshadowed a brief mid-session recovery. Small caps absorbed most of the pressure, and the Materials, Real Estate and Information Technology sectors were the weakest links. The losses were partially offset by defensives: National Australia Bank (up 1.7%), Commonwealth Bank, Telstra and Coles all traded higher, giving the index a floor despite soft breadth.
The selling lacked conviction, and with Wall Street stabilising overnight, yesterday’s pressure across lithium, uranium and copper names now looks more technical than fundamental.
Commodities & currencies
Commodities were broadly firmer. Copper reclaimed the US$5.00/lb mark and gold moved back toward US$4,000/oz. Iron ore held steady, and the Australian dollar gained ground to US$0.650 as risk appetite improved. Oil was softer, with WTI around US$59.60/bbl, reflecting renewed concerns around oversupply.
Crypto assets followed the risk-on tone — Bitcoin lifted back through US$103,000.
NAB results and trade data
NAB delivered full-year earnings this morning, reporting $7.09 billion in cash profit, broadly in line with expectations. The bank reported a net interest margin of 1.74%, marginally ahead of consensus, and declared a total dividend of 170 cents, matching forecasts.
Amcor and Light & Wonder released quarterly updates, while Aura Energy drew attention after Sweden voted to overturn its uranium mining ban — a notable policy shift as nuclear supply chains continue to reconfigure.
At 11:30 am AEDT, Australia’s September trade balance is released. The Bank of England follows late tonight.
Today’s outlook
With US markets firmer, volatility easing and metals stabilising, the ASX has a supportive backdrop for a rebound. Expect early strength in the banks following NAB’s update and a recovery across quality resource names that were oversold yesterday.
What matters is follow-through: recent sessions have shown that gains built on narrow leadership can fade quickly.