Australian shares are poised to open slightly lower this Melbourne Cup Day, with futures down 5 points (-0.04%) at 8:30 am AEDT, as attention turns to the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s penultimate meeting of the year.
The RBA is expected to keep the cash rate steady at 3.6%, but traders will watch Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks and the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy for any signal that inflation risks are creeping back into focus.
Wall Street mixed as mega-caps power on
US markets were uneven overnight: the S&P 500 added 0.17% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.46%, while the Dow Jones dipped 0.48%. Once again, large-cap technology names carried the load while most other sectors lagged.
Amazon rallied 4% to a record high after AWS agreed to supply OpenAI with US$38 billion worth of cloud capacity. Nvidia advanced 2.2% as analysts at Loop Capital raised their price target to US$350, and Microsoft gained after striking a US$9.7 billion AI-cloud deal with Sydney-founded data-centre operator Iren, whose US-listed shares jumped 13%.
Healthcare and consumer staples dragged, with Kimberly-Clark down 14% after announcing a US$48.7 billion takeover of Kenvue. Market breadth stayed negative for a fourth time in five sessions, underlining how dependent Wall Street’s momentum has become on its biggest tech stocks.
Economic data added a cautious undertone: the US ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.7 in October, signalling an eighth consecutive month of contraction. Treasury yields were steady, the 10-year note holding near 4.10%.
ASX 200 ekes out a gain, but resource stocks drag
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 12.9 points higher (+0.15%) on Monday at 8,894.8 after hitting a new 20-day low intraday. Banks, tech and consumer discretionary names led the modest advance, while miners and lithium producers weighed on broader sentiment.
Sector moves:
- Information Technology +1.65%
- Financials +1.25%
- Energy +0.79%
- Materials -0.94%
- Health Care -1.68%
Despite the index lift, decliners outnumbered gainers roughly two-to-one, continuing the recent pattern of narrow leadership. The All Tech index gained 0.67%, while the Small Ords slipped 0.41%.
Commodities and currencies
Gold futures hovered near record highs, up 0.4% to US$4,014 an ounce. Oil was little changed, with WTI crude at US$61.05 a barrel and Brent at US$64.89, both up a touch as traders balanced modest OPEC+ production increases with signals the group will pause output growth early next year.
Industrial metals were mixed: copper fell 1.3%, zinc rose 1.7%, and iron ore futures slipped 1.3% to US$105.84 a tonne amid softer Chinese steel output and a weakening demand picture.
The Australian dollar edged down 0.1% to US$0.6539, holding above recent lows ahead of the RBA decision. Bitcoin dropped 3% to around US$106,500 as the probability of a December US rate cut narrowed.
What’s ahead today
The RBA’s 2:30 pm announcement is the key domestic event, followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Markets now assume no further cuts through 2026, but any shift in inflation or growth forecasts could move both the Aussie dollar and bond yields.