ASX 200 futures are down 5 points (-0.04%) this morning.
The ASX200 fell 137 points (-1.52%) to 8,881.9 for the week last week after hotter-than-expected Q3 CPI effectively ruled out an RBA cut at Tuesday’s meeting. Powell’s pushback on a December Fed cut compounded pressure on rate-sensitive names.
Sector drags were Health Care (-8.32%), IT (-5.41%), Consumer Discretionary (-4.81%) and Real Estate (-3.58%). Relative outperformers were Energy (+1.55%), Consumer Staples (+1.36%), Materials (+0.04%) and Financials (-0.03%). At the stock level, Mayne Pharma (-31.12%), Wisetech (-19.22%), Lynas (-18.97%) and CSL (-15.99%) slumped; Boss Energy (+19.52%), Domino’s (+19.27%), Paladin (+14.88%) and Silex (+12.15%) outperformed.
The RBA last held the cash rate at 3.60% in September and flagged upside risks to September-quarter inflation—now realised. Markets price ~2bp of cuts for this week and don’t fully price the next 25bp move until May 2026.
United States — Tech lifts indices; Fed speak stays hawkish to mixed
US equities closed higher for the week despite a hawkish surprise at the FOMC.
The Nasdaq rose 1.97%, the Dow added 355 points (+0.75%), and the S&P 500 gained 0.71%, led by big tech after mostly positive earnings.
Amazon leapt 9.6% to a record close after projecting quarterly sales above forecasts, powering a 4.1% jump in consumer discretionary—the group’s biggest one-day gain since May 12. Apple slipped 0.4%: upbeat iPhone holiday guidance was offset by CEO Tim Cook’s warning on supply constraints. Netflix rose 2.7% after unveiling a 10-for-1 stock split. Western Digital climbed 8.8% on an outlook topping Street estimates, while First Solar surged 14.3% after beating third-quarter sales expectations.
About 26% of S&P 500 companies report this week (≈11% of index cap), including Palantir, Uber, AMD, Super Micro, Rivian, McDonald’s, Robinhood, Qualcomm, DoorDash, Lyft, Snap, Under Armour and Airbnb.
With a US government shutdown halting JOLTS and non-farm payrolls, attention turns to ADP employment and ISM employment components. September ADP showed a 32,000 private-sector job loss (second monthly decline); October consensus points to a +20,000 print.
Europe — inflation eases; indices consolidate monthly gains
European shares slipped Friday, but disinflation continued: euro-area CPI slowed to 2.1% in October from 2.2% in September, in line with forecasts.
- The FTSEurofirst 300 dipped 0.5% on the day yet posted a fourth straight monthly gain, up 2.5%—its best since May.
- In London, the FTSE 100 fell 0.4% Friday but added 3.9% in October.
The softer inflation backdrop supports a wait-and-see stance even as growth indicators remain mixed across the bloc.
Currencies
The US dollar firmed in European and US trade.
- The euro eased from US$1.1576 to US$1.1522, sitting near US$1.1535 at the US close.
- The Australian dollar slipped from US65.51¢ to US65.32¢ and was around US65.40¢ late.
- The Japanese yen weakened from ¥153.82 to ¥154.38 per US$ and was near ¥154.00 at the close.
Commodities — gold softens; iron ore firms on trade hopes
- Gold futures fell US$19.40 (-0.5%) to US$3,996.50/oz on Friday; spot hovered near US$4,002 at the US close.
- Bullion slipped ~3% for the week but rose 4.1% in October as macro volatility underpinned month-end demand.
- Iron ore futures edged up US$0.10 (+0.1%) to US$105.83/t, up 0.4% for the week and 0.5% in October, with sentiment buoyed by prospects of improved US-China trade dynamics.
Looking ahead
Watch the RBA Board, plus releases on home prices, household spending, building approvals, inflation and job ads; Westpac earnings are due. In the US, ISM manufacturing and construction spending arrive alongside a dense earnings slate.