When AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) reports third-quarter results next Thursday, 6 November, with investors and analysts will be keen to hear about the financial implications of the 'most favoured nation' (MFN) pricing deal recently agreed with Donald Trump, as well as the loss of its Farxiga patent and prospects for new drugs coming out of its pipeline.
This will be the first opportunity for discussion of the US MFN deal, making it a key discussion point, according to analysts at UBS.
However, the earnings impact is expected to be "highly manageable" as Medicaid accounts for only about 5% of the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker's US revenue.
Similarly, the quarterly update will also be the first opportunity for management to address Farxiga, where a dispute with generics manufacturers Viatris, Teva and Glenmark saw the UK Court of Appeal uphold an April's High Court decision invalidating AstraZeneca's patent for the blockbuster diabetes drug. AstraZeneca was reported to be planning a Supreme Court appeal.
Farxiga sales outside the US were "always expected to come under pressure" in the second half of the year from China volume-based procurement price reductions.
"These appear to have been delayed, but partially offset by the unexpected loss of the UK Farxiga patent and multisource generic entry."
As such, investors will look for clarity on the timing of these changes and their effect on second-half growth.
The City will also expect commentary on AstraZeneca’s strong pipeline, which has delivered a series of positive Phase 3 trial results in 2025, underpinning management’s $80 billion revenue target by 2030, which analysts at Jefferies reckon is not only achievable but perhaps even cautious.
Key data readouts for 2026 include Dato-DXd AVANZAR in lung cancer, eplontersen in ATTR-cardiomyopathy, and efzimfotase-alfa in hypophosphatasia.
Looking back to AstraZeneca’s last results in the summer, these were well-received with Q2 revenue up 12% to $14.46 billion and oncology sales up 43% to $11.95 billion, led by Tagrisso and Imfinzi.
As well as the MFN deal, independent analyst Michael Hewson noted concerns that AstraZeneca may be preparing to shift its primary listing to the US, after replacing its ADRs with a direct NYSE listing and cancelling £200 million in UK investment in September.
Deutsche Bank recently downgraded AZ to 'sell' on concerns the company’s oncology momentum is fading, with patent expiries looming and as breast cancer drug camizestrant may offer limited benefit, signalling potential share price weakness ahead.