The ASX looks set to open a touch firmer on Friday, with futures up 13 points (+0.14%) at 8:30 am AEDT, after what’s been a scrappy week for the local market. Yesterday the S&P/ASX 200 slipped another 0.46% to 8,885.5, even as lithium, uranium and parts of the energy and materials complex pushed higher — a reminder that resources are still getting bought while growth and consumer names are being sold.
ASX: Resources doing the heavy lifting
Thursday’s session was a study in rotation. Health care led with a 1.9% gain, energy rose 1.3% and materials inched higher, helped by better sentiment around battery metals and smaller iron ore names.
On the other side, consumer discretionary sank 4.2% as Wesfarmers and JB Hi-Fi were marked down, tech fell 1.5% and real estate lost more than 2%. The Aussie dollar held around US$0.659, keeping the RBA’s slightly firmer tone in view.
That leaves today looking more constructive but still uneven: resources start with momentum, but REITs, tech and consumer stocks will be watching China’s PMI print at 12:30 pm and local credit data at 11:30 am for any sign the growth pulse is cooling.
Wall Street: AI spend spooks, not sinks
US markets finally eased after their run of record highs. The S&P 500 fell 1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.6% and the Dow was off 0.2%. The wobble came from earnings rather than macro factors — Meta tumbled 11% after flagging heavier AI capex, Microsoft slipped on slower-than-hoped Azure growth, and chip names followed them lower. Amazon was the outlier in after-hours trade, helped by a better cloud number.
Under the surface the tone was a bit healthier, with equal-weighted indices doing better and financials and health care finding support. Bond yields steadied around 4.1% on the US 10-year, so the lead for the ASX is soft rather than risk-off.
Trump–Xi ‘pause’ keeps rare earths in play
The US and China agreed to dial back some of the tariff heat — cutting the headline China rate to 47% from 57%, pushing out rare earth-related levies for a year, and restarting US farm purchases.
It’s enough to take the edge off near-term trade fear, but it doesn’t change the broader decoupling story and likely will not remove volatility for ASX rare earth and critical minerals names. Expect traders to keep fading big spikes.
Gold shines on safe-haven flow
Gold found fresh strength overnight, climbing more than 2% to push back above the US$4,000 mark. Investors appeared to view the Trump–Xi tariff “pause” as more symbolic than substantial, turning instead toward safe havens amid ongoing uncertainty around Fed policy into next year.
The move should lend a stronger tone to local gold producers and explorers after a mixed week for the sector.
On today’s docket
It’s a busy local diary with September quarterly reporting wrapping up, which should help the market find stock-specific direction:
- Capstone Copper delivered a solid Q3 offshore and kept guidance, a useful read-through for local copper sentiment.
- ResMed posted a small beat on margins but the US line was softer — local trade will be about valuation rather than the business.
- Steadfast is in focus after its CEO stepped aside to allow an external workplace investigation.
- Lynas stays on watch in light of the US–China tariff pause and its plan for a new heavy rare earth facility.
- A run of AGMs — including Fortescue, CAR Group, Pinnacle Investment Management and Sandfire Resources — plus two small IPOs should keep things busy into the afternoon.
What we’re watching at the open
- Resources vs rare earths: battery metals, smaller iron ore and energy had the bid yesterday — can they hold it after the tariff headline?
- Gold: with spot back over US$4,000/oz, the local gold space finally has a tailwind. The World Gold Council reports that gold demand hit new records in the September quarter.
- Rate-sensitives: REITs and tech may stabilise if futures strength sticks through 10:00 am, but China PMIs will set the tone after lunch.
So, more of a repair-and-rebalance Friday than a breakout — but with resources firm, gold smiling again and a full corporate diary, the ASX has enough to stop the week ending on a sour note.