Anglo American PLC's (LSE:AAL) third-quarter update was steady enough on the surface, yet Berenberg’s latest note shows why investors might not want to relax just yet.
The German bank has lifted its price target to 3,100p from 3,000p and kept its “Buy” rating, but the detail beneath the headline numbers tells a more nuanced story.
Production across most of Anglo’s portfolio was in line with expectations, with a welcome boost from the Minas-Rio iron ore mine in Brazil following successful maintenance work.
The weaker spot was Collahuasi, the Chilean copper joint venture shared with Glencore. Here, output is running below historical levels as weathered stockpiles are processed, and recovery is now expected to take longer than hoped.
Berenberg has trimmed its 2026 copper forecast to 733,000 tonnes, below the company’s 760,000 to 820,000 tonne guidance.
The reduced volumes at Collahuasi feed into Berenberg’s wider view that the copper market will stay tight.
Prices have already breached $11,000 a tonne this week, and the bank thinks supply constraints will keep them high through 2026 and beyond.
Anglo is exploring ways to offset the shortfall, such as restarting the idled second plant at Los Bronces in Chile, though that is seen as a limited fix.
Even so, the outlook for Anglo’s earnings remains resilient. Cost adjustments and higher iron ore output have given a small lift to 2027 estimates, and the analysts see further long-term upside from the planned merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, due to complete by the end of 2026.
At just under 2,915p a share, Anglo trades on just over eight times 2026 EBITDA and 1.5 times net asset value, leaving room for rerating if copper stays hot.
For now, the miner’s stability is welcome, but investors will be watching closely to see whether Collahuasi can get back on track.