The Bank of England will cut interest rates at next week's meeting, Goldman Sachs predicted on Wednesday.
Economists at the US investment bank changed their tune, swimming against the wider City tide, which sees Threadneedle Street keeping rates on hold, with only 7.3 basis points of cuts priced in on swap rate markets for this coming meeting.
Goldman previously ruled out a November cut after the September monetary policy committee meeting but based on data since then, has U-turned again.
This is based on services inflation below the MPC’s forecasts, cooling private sector pay growth and softer GDP data.
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, disagrees, saying macro numbers over the last few weeks are "unlikely to move the needle".
The MPC is divided, though, and he reckons two members are likely to favour a cut, but hold will be the majority of a 7-2 split.
"Both dovish and hawkish voices on the MPC will have plenty to back their views at this meeting," he says.
"With disagreement on the committee, limited confidence in the near-term forecasts and uncertainty over the contents of the upcoming Budget, it appears likely that the MPC won’t commit to either a December cut nor hold, instead waiting to see how the economy develops."
UBS economist Anna Titareva also sees the MPC keeping rates unchanged, with "two or three dissenters" likely.
This will break the pattern of quarterly rate cuts, she notes, with the BoE to staying on hold for the second consecutive meeting.
She expects the next cut in February, but thinks recent data has increased the chances of a cut in December, though markets currently only price a cumulative 16.5bps of cuts by the end of this year.
What could prompt the BoE to cut in December?
"In our view, ahead of the December meeting, the MPC will be looking for additional evidence of disinflation, a moderation in wage growth, and assurance that the Autumn Budget has a minimal effect on inflation.
"Nonetheless, even under these conditions, the MPC may opt to hold off on cutting rates until February, when updated projections will be available, and in order to avoid raising expectations of back-to-back rate cuts."
In this context, she says she will be "closely watching" Governor Bailey's comments during the press conference next week.