Wedbush analysts project the 2025 North American box office to reach $9 billion, representing a 5% year-over-year increase, followed by $9.7 billion in 2026, up 9% from 2025.
“Mid-single-digit growth in 2025, followed by a high single-digit rise in 2026, signals a steady recovery with broader scope and consistent quality,” the analysts wrote.
“Consequently, we think the group will be viewed more favorably by investors, each with its own secondary catalysts to boost shares in the coming months.”
The year-to-date box office is tracking 3% above last year, with quarterly performance mixed.
Q1 was down 7% year-over-year, Q2 up 37%, Q3 down 11%, and early Q4 tracking down 10%.
Wedbush noted that comparisons are expected to improve and that holiday-season titles could strengthen the quarter.
“We project the quarter up 4% year-over-year and the full year up 5% to $9 billion, roughly unchanged from our previous estimate,” the analysts wrote.
Several theater operators are scheduled to report third-quarter results in the coming week. Cinemark Holdings (NYSE:CNK) is set to report before market open on Wednesday, November 5.
Wedbush sees Cinemark “poised to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters” and that the company “puts its convertible debt repayment behind it, reducing its debt with minimal dilution, maintaining its leverage ratio within 2–3x.”
The firm also noted Cinemark’s investments in theater technology, cash earmarked for new builds or M&A, and plans to return cash to shareholders.
AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) will report after the market close on November 5, with Wedbush expecting results to come in ahead of the consensus. “[AMC] is positioned to gain market share in 2026 with the most premium screens in North America and expansion plans in UK/EU,” they wrote.
The analysts added that AMC has repaid or postponed all debt that was due in 2026, relieving near term uncertainty, and that a December share issuance is likely the last for a while.
Marcus Theatres (NYSE:MCS) reports on Friday before markets open. A more consistent theatrical release slate over the next several quarters is set to benefit MCS, Wedbush believes.
The company “is likely to raise the dividend back toward pre-pandemic rates, repurchase shares, and/or locate accretive M&A in both theaters and hotels, with no significant debt maturities until 2027.”
The analysts also highlighted that Marcus owns most of its properties with room to monetize surplus real estate.
Meanwhile, National CineMedia (NASDAQ: NCMI) reports on October 30, after market close.
Wedbush wrote that NCM “stands to gain from an improving box office environment in Q4 2025 through 2026” and “will benefit from advertising dollars shifting to highly targeted advertising mediums like cinema.”
The firm also noted NCM’s efforts to increase market share through AI solutions for local advertising and its commitment to returning cash to shareholders.