ASX 200 futures are up 11 points (+0.12%) at 8:30 am AEDT, setting a cautiously firmer tone after Wall Street notched fresh all-time highs again overnight. The impulse is tech-led and headline-driven, but breadth has softened — a reminder that today’s local CPI at 11:30 am AEDT is the real market mover for Aussie risk.
Yesterday on the ASX: Defensives up, resources and health care hammered
The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.48% to 9,012.5 on Tuesday, with a sharp rotation out of last month’s winners. Health care slumped 7.4% and Information Technology dropped 3.2%, while Materials (-2.0%) and Energy (-1.7%) struggled as traders digested easing US-China tensions and what that could mean for Australia’s critical-minerals leverage. By contrast, Consumer Discretionary (+1.7%), Financials (+1.3%), Utilities (+1.1%) and Communication Services (+1.2%) caught a bid, suggesting investors sought large-cap resilience into CPI/Fed week. The Aussie dollar hovered near US$0.656 late in the session.
Overnight lead: Records again, but the rally narrows
The S&P 500 (+0.23%), Dow (+0.34%) and Nasdaq (+0.80%) all closed at new highs, powered by mega-cap tech and a busy M&A tape. Nvidia outperformed after a flurry of AI announcements, while Microsoft edged back into the US$4 trillion club following its updated OpenAI stake. Under the hood, the equal-weight S&P lagged notably, a reminder that this is still a leadership-concentrated market. US yields eased a touch into tonight’s Fed decision; the VIX ticked up, a nod to event risk.
Commodities & currencies: Uranium pops, gold cools, oil slips
A mixed board for hard assets with a risk-on tint and supply headlines still doing the rounds.
- Uranium: uranium equities jumped offshore, with the industry ETF up by more than 8%, as nuclear build-out narratives regained momentum.
- Battery & base metals: lithium names were modestly firmer in the US session; copper was steady.
- Gold: pulled back towards ~US$3,950/oz as safe-haven demand faded with better trade optics.
- Oil: WTI eased to ~US$60/bbl, its third straight decline, as the market weighed sanction headlines against ample spare capacity.
- FX: AUD trades around US$0.658; today’s CPI is the key domestic catalyst.
Macro focus: CPI is the headline act
RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s recent remarks cooled hopes of a November cut, and market pricing has nudged towards “wait-and-see”. The Q3 print — especially trimmed mean — will shape the near-term path. Offshore, the Fed is widely expected to trim again, but guidance on the pace into year-end will matter for global risk appetite.
ASX diary: Placements, plants and AGMs
It’s a full local agenda across resources and defensives. Arafura announced a $475 million institutional placement to progress Nolans, with Hancock earmarked for $125 million — a sizeable raise that will be watched as a read-through for rare earths appetite. Lynas, meanwhile, outlined plans for a heavy rare earth separation facility in Malaysia (estimated at about $180 million), adding a further layer to its downstream ambitions.
Outside resources, Medibank has set out longer-dated FY30 goals, including a larger contribution from Medibank Health, while Domino’s cooled recent takeover chatter and reiterated the turnaround focus. Cedar Woods guided to stronger FY26 earnings.
On the diary front, Golden Dragon Mining and Right Resources are due to list around midday, and a cluster of AGMs — including Ansell, Dexus and Nick Scali — should keep the corporate newsflow steady.
What we’re watching on the open
With CPI due late morning, interest-rate sensitives may tread carefully first up, particularly real estate and longer-duration tech. After Tuesday’s pullback in miners, expect a more selective tone: uranium sentiment improved offshore, gold names face a softer bullion backdrop, and energy could stay on the back foot with oil easing.
Large-cap health care and tech — both hit hard yesterday — have scope to stabilise into any firmer start, but follow-through likely hinges on the inflation print.
Bottom line
The global backdrop remains supportive at the headline level, but leadership is narrowing and local inflation is the swing factor. A clean CPI read could tee up a late-month relief bounce; a sticky core likely keeps the RBA in hawkish-watch mode and the ASX skewed to value over growth — at least for today.